Moreover, if we take the case of the earth, as an inhabited planet,
any large alteration in the axis, that is in the average distance from
the sun, would produce a more than proportional change in the amount
of heat and light received from the sun; any great increase in the
eccentricity would increase largely that part (at present very small)
of our seasonal variations of heat and cold which are due to varying
distance from the sun; while any change in position of the ecliptic,
which was unaccompanied by a corresponding change of the equator, and
had the effect of increasing the angle between the two, would largely
increase the variations of temperature in the course of the year. The
stability shewn to exist is therefore a guarantee against certain
kinds of great climatic alterations which might seriously affect the
habitability of the earth.
It is perhaps just worth while to point out that the results
established by Lagrange and Laplace were mathematical consequences,
obtained by processes involving the neglect of certain small quantities
and therefore not perfectly rigorous, of certain definite hypotheses to
which the actual conditions of the solar system bear a tolerably close
resemblance. Apart from causes at present unforeseen, it is therefore
not unreasonable to expect that for a very considerable period of time
the motions of the actual bodies forming the solar system may be very
nearly in accordance with these results; but there is no valid reason
why certain disturbing causes, ignored or rejected by Laplace and
Lagrange on account of their insignificance, should not sooner or later
produce quite appreciable effects (cf. chapter XIII., § 293).
246. A few of Laplace’s numerical results as to the secular variations
of the elements may serve to give an idea of the magnitudes dealt with.
The line of apses of each planet moves in the same direction; the most
rapid motion, occurring in the case of Saturn, amounted to about 15″
per annum, or rather less than half a degree in a century. If this
motion were to continue uniformly, the line of apses would require no
less than 80,000 years to perform a complete circuit and return to its
original position. The motion of the line of nodes (or line in which
the plane of the planet’s orbit meets that of the ecliptic) was in
general found to be rather more rapid. The annual alteration in the
inclination of any orbit to the ecliptic in no case exceeded a fraction
of a second; while the change of eccentricity of Saturn’s orbit, which
was considerably the largest, would, if continued for four centuries,
have only amounted to 1∕1000.
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