Individually, these records are not exact enough to be used in
determining the velocity, but they may be employed collectively for
the construction of the time-curve in Fig. 70. In this diagram,
distances in hundreds of miles from the equivalent centre are
represented along the horizontal line, and the time of occurrence in
minutes past 4 P.M. along the perpendicular line. The small circles
represent the observations at Calcutta and Bombay, the dots those at
places lying nearly west of the origin, and the crosses those at
places situated to the south or north-west. The continuous curve
passes in an average manner through the series of points, and probably
does not differ much from the true curve of the time of arrival of the
shock at different places. The curve, it will be noticed, is at first
concave, and afterwards convex, upwards; indicating that the times
required to traverse successive equal distances at first increased,
and then decreased. Thus, if the curve is an accurate representation
of the facts, it would follow that the surface-velocity was subject to
a continual decrease outwards from the centre, until it was a minimum
at a distance of about 280 miles, after which it increased.
The deviation of the curve from a straight line is, however, so slight
that we cannot feel much confidence in this conclusion. If we join the
points corresponding to Calcutta and Bombay by a straight line (drawn
dotted in Fig. 70), it does not in any part vary from the continuous
line by a distance equivalent to more than half-a-minute. Indeed, if a
very few discordant records are excluded, and if less weight is given
to those times which are multiples of five minutes, the straight line
represents the mean quite as fairly as the curved line does; and that
this is the more probable interpretation will appear from the
observations on the unfelt earthquake described in the next section.
We may therefore conclude that the earth-waves travelled along the
surface at an approximately uniform rate of 3 kilometres per second,
or about 120 miles a minute--a result which Mr. Oldham considers may
be accepted as accurate to within five per cent.
If the two time-curves in Fig. 70 are continued to the right until
they meet the time-scale, it will be seen that they intersect it near
the point corresponding to 4.26 P.M., implying that this would be
approximately the time at which the shock was felt within the
epicentral area. This agrees closely with the observed times of about
4.25 at Parbatipur and Kuch Bihar, 4.26 at Siliguri, and 4.27 at
Shillong and Goalpara; and it is probable that the error is not more
than a quarter of a minute in defect or half-a-minute in excess. Thus,
the time of arrival of the first sensible waves at the surface would
lie between 4h. 25m. 45s., and 4h. 26m. 30s. P.M., Madras time, or
between 11h. 4m. 45s. and 11h. 5m. 30s. A.M., Greenwich mean time.
THE UNFELT EARTHQUAKE.
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