Excluding the Ischian earthquakes, which belong to a special class, it
is evident that there is generally some slight preparation for a great
earthquake. For a few hours or days beforehand, weak shocks and
tremors are felt or rumbling noises heard within the future
meizoseismal area. But, unfortunately, it has not yet been found
possible to distinguish these disturbances from others of apparently
the same character which occur alone, so that for the present they
fail to serve as warnings.
In Japan, where the organisation of earthquake-studies is more
complete than elsewhere, it is possible that a vague forecast might be
made, if the distribution of the fore-shocks of the earthquake of 1891
should prove to be a general feature of all great earthquakes. It was
at first supposed that this earthquake occurred without preparation of
any kind; but a closer analysis of the records shows that during the
previous two years there was a very decided increase in the seismic
activity of the district, and also that the distribution of the
epicentres marked out the future fault-scarp, and at the same time
exhibited a tendency to comparative uniformity over the whole
fault-region.
For the present, then, the only warning available is that given by the
preliminary sound, which may precede the strongest vibrations by as
much as five or ten or even more seconds. Though two or three seconds
may elapse before its character is recognised, the fore-sound thus
allows time for many persons to escape from their falling houses. Some
races, however, are less capable of hearing the sound than others, and
this may be one reason why Japanese earthquakes are so destructive of
human life.
DISTURBED AREA.
It is usual with some investigators to measure the intensity of an
earthquake roughly by the extent of its disturbed area. The depth of
the seismic focus must of course have some influence on the size of
this area, and this condition is only neglected because we have no
precise knowledge of the depth in any case. Thus, Mr. Oldham regards
the Indian earthquake of 1897 as rivalling the Lisbon earthquake of
1755, which is generally considered to hold the first place, because
its disturbed area was not certainly exceeded by that of the latter.
That disturbed area is, however, an untrustworthy measure of intensity
will be evident from the following table, in which the earthquakes
described in this volume (omitting those of Ischia) are arranged as
nearly as may be in order of intensity, beginning with the
strongest:--
Earthquake. Disturbed Area
in Sq. Miles.
Indian 1,750,000
Japanese 330,000
Neapolitan 39,200
Charleston 2,800,000
Riviera 219,000
Andalusian 174,000
Hereford 98,000
Inverness 33,000
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