A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. IIMill, John Stuart
Philosophy
A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
Mill, John Stuart
Knowledge, Theory of; Logic; Science -- Methodology
It is true that (as we formerly remarked) laws of causation, whether
ultimate or derivative, are, in most cases, fulfilled even when
counteracted; the cause produces its effect, though that effect is
destroyed by something else. That the effect may be frustrated, is,
therefore, no objection to the universality of laws of causation. But it
is fatal to the universality of the sequences or coexistences of
effects, which compose the greater part of the derivative laws flowing
from laws of causation. When, from the law of a certain combination of
causes, there results a certain order in the effects; as from the
combination of a single sun with the rotation of an opaque body round
its axis, there results, on the whole surface of that opaque body, an
alternation of day and night; then if we suppose one of the combined
causes counteracted, the rotation stopped, the sun extinguished, or a
second sun superadded, the truth of that particular law of causation is
in no way affected; it is still true that one sun shining on an opaque
revolving body will alternately produce day and night; but since the sun
no longer does shine on such a body, the derivative uniformity, the
succession of day and night on the given planet, is no longer true.
Those derivative uniformities, therefore, which are not laws of
causation, are (except in the rare case of their depending on one cause
alone, not on a combination of causes,) always more or less contingent
on collocations; and are hence subject to the characteristic infirmity
of empirical laws, that of being admissible only where the collocations
are known by experience to be such as are requisite for the truth of the
law, that is, only within the conditions of time and place confirmed by
actual observation.
§ 2. This principle, when stated in general terms, seems clear and
indisputable; yet many of the ordinary judgments of mankind, the
propriety of which is not questioned, have at least the semblance of
being inconsistent with it. On what grounds, it may be asked, do we
expect that the sun will rise to-morrow? To-morrow is beyond the limits
of time comprehended in our observations. They have extended over some
thousands of years past, but they do not include the future. Yet we
infer with confidence that the sun will rise to-morrow; and nobody
doubts that we are entitled to do so. Let us consider what is the
warrant for this confidence.
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