A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. IIMill, John Stuart
Philosophy
A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
Mill, John Stuart
Knowledge, Theory of; Logic; Science -- Methodology
The law of cause and effect, being thus certain, is capable of imparting
its certainty to all other inductive propositions which can be deduced
from it; and the narrower inductions may be regarded as receiving their
ultimate sanction from that law, since there is no one of them which is
not rendered more certain than it was before, when we are able to
connect it with that larger induction, and to show that it cannot be
denied, consistently with the law that everything which begins to exist
has a cause. And hence we are justified in the seeming inconsistency, of
holding induction by simple enumeration to be good for proving this
general truth, the foundation of scientific induction, and yet refusing
to rely on it for any of the narrower inductions. I fully admit that if
the law of causation were unknown, generalization in the more obvious
cases of uniformity in phenomena would nevertheless be possible, and
though in all cases more or less precarious, and in some extremely so,
would suffice to constitute a certain measure of probability: but what
the amount of this probability might be, we are dispensed from
estimating, since it never could amount to the degree of assurance which
the proposition acquires, when, by the application to it of the Four
Methods, the supposition of its falsity is shown to be inconsistent with
the Law of Causation. We are therefore logically entitled, and, by the
necessities of scientific Induction, required, to disregard the
probabilities derived from the early rude method of generalizing, and to
consider no minor generalization as proved except so far as the law of
causation confirms it, nor probable except so far as it may reasonably
be expected to be so confirmed.
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