It is worth while to pause a moment over the last sentence. It differs
significantly from the doctrine of gold reserves which we learnt and
taught before the war. We used to assume that no Central Bank would be
so extravagant as to keep more gold than it required or so imprudent
as to keep less. From time to time gold would flow out into the
circulation or for export abroad; experience showed that the quantity
required on these occasions bore some rough proportion to the Central
Bank’s liabilities; a decidedly higher proportion than this would be
fixed on to provide for contingencies and to inspire confidence; and
the creation of credit would be regulated largely by reference to the
maintenance of this proportion. The Bank of England, for example,
would allow itself to be swayed by the tides of gold, permitting
the inflowing and outflowing streams to produce their “natural”
consequences unchecked by any ideas as to preventing the effect on
prices. Already before the war, the system was becoming precarious by
reason of its artificiality. The “proportion” was by the lapse of time
losing its relation to the facts and had become largely conventional.
Some other figure, greater or less, would have done just as well.[48]
The War broke down the convention; for the withdrawal of gold from
actual circulation destroyed one of the elements of reality lying
behind the convention, and the suspension of convertibility destroyed
the other. It would have been absurd to regulate the bank rate by
reference to a “proportion” which had lost all its significance; and
in the course of the past ten years a new policy has been evolved. The
bank rate is now employed, however incompletely and experimentally,
to regulate the expansion and deflation of credit in the interests of
business stability and the steadiness of prices. In so far as it is
employed to procure stability of the dollar exchange, where this is
inconsistent with stability of internal prices, we have a relic of
pre-war policy and a compromise between discrepant aims.
[48] _Vide_, for what I wrote about this in 1914, _The Economic
Journal_, xxiv. p. 621.
Those who advocate the return to a gold standard do not always
appreciate along what different lines our actual practice has been
drifting. If we restore the gold standard, are we to return also to the
pre-war conceptions of bank-rate, allowing the tides of gold to play
what tricks they like with the internal price-level, and abandoning the
attempt to moderate the disastrous influence of the credit-cycle on the
stability of prices and employment? Or are we to continue and develop
the experimental innovations of our present policy, ignoring the “bank
ratio” and, if necessary, allowing unmoved a piling up of gold reserves
far beyond our requirements or their depletion far below them?
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Elsewhere in the archive
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account