On the other hand, I see grave objections to reinstating gold in the
pious hope that international co-operation will keep it in order. With
the existing distribution of the world’s gold, the reinstatement of
the gold standard means, inevitably, that we surrender the regulation
of our price level and the handling of the credit cycle to the Federal
Reserve Board of the United States. Even if the most intimate and
cordial co-operation is established between the Board and the Bank of
England, the preponderance of power will still belong to the former.
The Board will be in a position to disregard the Bank. But if the Bank
disregard the Board, it will render itself liable to be flooded with,
or depleted of, gold, as the case may be. Moreover, we can be confident
beforehand that there will be much suspicion amongst Americans (for
that is their disposition) of any supposed attempt on the part of
the Bank of England to dictate their policy or to influence American
discount rates in the interests of Great Britain. We must also be
prepared to incur our share of the vain expense of bottling up the
world’s redundant gold.
It would be rash in present circumstances to surrender our freedom of
action to the Federal Reserve Board of the United States. We do not
yet possess sufficient experience of its capacity to act in times of
stress with courage and independence. The Federal Reserve Board is
striving to free itself from the pressure of sectional interests; but
we are not yet certain that it will wholly succeed. It is still liable
to be overwhelmed by the impetuosity of a cheap money campaign. A
suspicion of British influence would, so far from strengthening the
Board, greatly weaken its resistance to popular clamour. Nor is it
certain, quite apart from weakness or mistakes, that the simultaneous
application of the same policy will always be in the interests of
both countries. The development of the credit cycle and the state of
business may sometimes be widely different on the two sides of the
Atlantic.
Therefore, since I regard the stability of prices, credit, and
employment as of paramount importance, and since I feel no confidence
that an old-fashioned gold standard will even give us the modicum of
stability that it used to give, I reject the policy of restoring the
gold standard on pre-war lines. At the same time I doubt the wisdom of
attempting a “managed” gold standard jointly with the United States, on
the lines recommended by Mr. Hawtrey, because it retains too many of
the disadvantages of the old system without its advantages, and because
it would make us too dependent on the policy and on the wishes of the
Federal Reserve Board.
CHAPTER V
POSITIVE SUGGESTIONS FOR THE FUTURE REGULATION OF MONEY
A sound constructive scheme must provide--if it is to satisfy the
arguments and the analysis of this book:
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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