[51] The Joint Stock banks have published monthly returns
since January 1921. Excluding the half-yearly statement
when a little “window-dressing” is temporarily arranged,
the extreme range of fluctuation has been between 11·0
per cent and 11·9 per cent in the proportion of “cash”
to deposits, and between 41·1 per cent and 50·1 per cent
in the proportion of advances to deposits. These figures
cover two and a half years of widely varying conditions.
The “proportions” of individual banks differ amongst
themselves, and the above is an average result, the
steadiness of which is strengthened by the fact that each
big bank is pretty steadfast in its own policy.
In order to follow, therefore, the train of causation a stage further,
we must consider what determines the volume of their “cash.” Its amount
can only be altered in one or other of three ways: (_a_) by the public
requiring more or fewer notes in circulation, (_b_) by the Treasury
borrowing more or less from the Currency Note Reserve, and (_c_) by the
Bank of England increasing or diminishing its assets.[52]
[52] For the aggregate of its liabilities in the shape of
deposits and of notes in circulation automatically depends
on the volume of its assets.
To complete the argument, one further factor, not yet mentioned, must
be introduced, namely (_d_) the proportion of the banks’ second-line
reserve in the shape of their holdings of Treasury Bills, which
can be regarded as cash at one remove. In determining what is a
safe proportion of “cash,” they pay some regard to the amount of
Treasury Bills which they hold, since by reducing this holding they
can immediately increase their “cash” and compel the Treasury to
borrow more either from the Currency Note Reserve or from the Bank of
England. The ninefold proportion referred to above presumes a certain
minimum holding of Treasury Bills, and might have to be modified if a
sufficient volume of such Bills was not available. This factor (_d_)
is, however, also important because the banks in their turn are open to
pressure by the Treasury, whenever it draws to itself the resources of
their depositors--whether by taxation or by offering them attractive
longer-dated loans--and uses them to pay off, if not Ways and Means
advances from the Bank of England (which reduces the banks’ first-line
reserve of cash), then alternatively Treasury Bills held by the banks
themselves (which reduces their second-line reserve of bills).
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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