This, in brief--I apologise to the reader if I have compressed the
argument unduly--is the present state of affairs, one essentially
different from our pre-war system. It will be observed that in practice
we have already gone a long way towards the ideal of directing bank
rate and credit policy by reference to the internal price level and
other symptoms of under- or over-expansion of internal credit, rather
than by reference to the pre-war criteria of the amount of cash in
circulation (or of gold reserves in the banks) or the level of the
dollar exchange.
I. Accordingly my first requirement in a good constructive scheme can
be supplied merely by a development of our existing arrangements on
more deliberate and self-conscious lines. Hitherto the Treasury and
the Bank of England have looked forward to the stability of the dollar
exchange (preferably at the pre-war parity) as their objective. It
is not clear whether they intend to stick to this irrespective of
fluctuations in the value of the dollar (or of gold); whether, that
is to say, they would sacrifice the stability of sterling prices to
the stability of the dollar exchange in the event of the two proving
to be incompatible. At any rate, my scheme would require that they
should adopt the stability of sterling prices as their _primary_
objective--though this would not prevent their aiming at exchange
stability also as a secondary objective by co-operating with the
Federal Reserve Board in a common policy. So long as the Federal
Reserve Board was successful in keeping dollar prices steady the
objective of keeping sterling prices steady would be identical with
the objective of keeping the dollar sterling exchange steady. My
recommendation does not involve more than a determination that, in
the event of the Federal Reserve Board failing to keep dollar prices
steady, sterling prices should not, if it could be helped, plunge with
them merely for the sake of maintaining a fixed parity of exchange.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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