The notion, that America can get rid of her gold by showing a greater
readiness to make loans to foreign countries, is incomplete. This
result will only follow if the loans are inflationary loans, not
provided for by the reduction of expenditure and investment in other
directions. Foreign investments formed out of real savings will no more
denude the United States of her gold than they denude Great Britain
of hers. But if the United States places a large amount of dollar
purchasing power in the hands of foreigners, as a pure addition to
the purchasing power previously in the hands of her own nationals,
then no doubt prices will rise and we shall be back on the method
of depreciating the dollar, just discussed, by a normal inflationary
process. Thus the invitation to the United States to deal with the
problem of her gold by increasing her foreign investments will not be
effective unless it is intended as an invitation to inflate.
* * * * *
I argue, therefore, that the same policy which is wise for Great
Britain is wise for the United States, namely to aim at the stability
of the commodity-value of the dollar rather than at stability of the
gold-value of the dollar, and to effect the former if necessary by
varying the gold-value of the dollar.
If Great Britain and the United States were both embarked on this
policy and if both were successful, our secondary desideratum, namely
the stability of the dollar-exchange standard, would follow as a
consequence. I agree with Mr. Hawtrey that the ideal state of affairs
is an intimate co-operation between the Federal Reserve Board and
the Bank of England, as a result of which stability of prices and of
exchange would be achieved at the same time. But I suggest that it is
wiser and more practical that this should be allowed to develop out of
experience and mutual advantage, without either side binding itself to
the other. If the Bank of England aims primarily at the stability of
sterling, and the Federal Reserve Board at the stability of dollars,
each authority letting the other into its confidence so far as may be,
better results will be obtained than if sterling is unalterably fixed
by law in terms of dollars and the Bank of England is limited to using
its influence on the Federal Reserve Board to keep dollars steady. A
collaboration which is not free on both sides is likely to lead to
dissensions, especially if the business of keeping dollars steady
involves a heavy expenditure in burying unwanted gold.
We have reached a stage in the evolution of money when a “managed”
currency is inevitable, but we have not yet reached the point when the
management can be entrusted to a single authority. The best we can do,
therefore, is to have _two_ managed currencies, sterling and dollars,
with as close a collaboration as possible between the aims and methods
of the managements.
III. _Other Countries._
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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