This point may be made clearer by an example. Let us consider two
countries, Westropa and the United States of the Hesperides, and let
us assume for the sake of simplicity, and also because it may often
correspond to the facts, that in both countries the price of exported
goods moves in the same way as the price of other home-produced
goods, but that the “equation of exchange” has moved in favour of the
Hesperides so that a smaller number than before of units of Hesperidean
products exchange for a given quantity of Westropean products. It
follows from this that imported products in Westropa will rise in
price more than commodities generally, whilst in the Hesperides
they will rise less. Let us suppose that between 1913 and 1923 the
Westropean index number of prices has risen from 100 to 155 and the
Hesperidean index number from 100 to 160; that these index numbers are
so constructed in each case that imported commodities constitute 20
per cent and home-produced commodities 80 per cent of the whole; and
that the “equation of exchange” has moved 10 per cent in favour of
the Hesperides, that is to say a given quantity of the goods exported
by the Hesperides will buy 10 per cent more than before of the goods
exported by Europe. The state of affairs is then as follows:[28]
_Westropa_: Price index of imported commodities (_x_) 167.
„ home-produced „ (_y_) 152.
„ all „ 155.
_Hesperides_: „ imported „ (_x´_) 148.
„ home-produced „ (_y´_) 163.
„ all „ 160.
[Footnote 28:
For 10_x_ = 11_y_
8_y_ + 2_x_ = 1550
11_x´_ = 10_y´_
8_y´_ + 2_x´_ = 1600.
]
Thus it appears that the purchasing power parity of the Westropean
currency in 1923 compared with 1913 is (160/155 = )103; whereas the
rate of exchange, compared with the 1913 parity, is (163/167 = 148/152
= )97. If the worsening of Westropa’s equation of exchange with the
Hesperides is permanent, then its purchasing power parity (on the 1913
basis) will also remain permanently above the equilibrium value of the
market rate of exchange.
A tendency of these two measures of the value of a country’s currency
to move differently is, therefore, a highly interesting symptom. If the
market rate of exchange shows a continuing tendency to stand below the
purchasing power parity, we have, failing any other explanation, some
reason to suspect a worsening of the “equation of exchange” as compared
with the base year.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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