When this is the case, it is not possible to say in general whether
exchange value will move towards purchasing power parity or the other
way round. Sometimes, as recently in Europe, it is the exchanges
which are the more sensitive to impending relative price-changes and
move first; whilst in other cases the exchanges may not move until
after the change in the relation between the internal and external
price-levels is an accomplished fact. But the essence of the purchasing
power parity theory, considered as an explanation of the exchanges,
is to be found, I think, in its regarding internal purchasing power
as being in the long run a more trustworthy indicator of a currency’s
value than the market rates of exchange, because internal purchasing
power quickly reflects the monetary policy of the country, which is
the final determinant. If the market rates of exchange fall further
than the country’s existing or impending currency policy justifies by
its effect on the internal purchasing power of the country’s money,
then sooner or later the exchange value is bound to recover. Thus,
provided no persisting change is taking place in the basic economic
relations between two countries, and provided the internal purchasing
power of the currency has in each country settled down to equilibrium
in relation to the currency policy of the authorities, then the rate
of exchange between the currencies of the two countries must also
settle down in the long run to correspond with their comparative
internal purchasing powers. Subject to these assumptions comparative
internal purchasing power does take the place of the old gold parity
as furnishing the point about which the short-period movements of the
exchanges fluctuate.
If, on the other hand, these assumptions are not fulfilled and changes
are taking place in the “equation of exchange,” as economists call it,
between the services and products of one country and those of another,
either on account of movements of capital, or reparation payments, or
changes in the relative efficiency of labour, or changes in the urgency
of the world’s demand for that country’s special products, or the like,
then the equilibrium point between purchasing power parity and the rate
of exchange may be modified permanently.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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