The effect of the cheap money rates ruling in London from the middle of
1922 to the middle of 1923 in diminishing the attractiveness of London
as a depository of funds is strikingly shown, in the above tables,
by the cheapening of the forward quotations of foreign currencies
relatively to the spot quotations. In the case of the dollar the
forward quotation had risen by the beginning of 1923 to a rate 3 per
cent per annum above the spot quotation (_i.e._ forward dollars were 3
per cent per annum _cheaper_ than spot dollars in terms of sterling),
which meant (subject to modification by the other influences to be
mentioned below) that the effective rate for short loans approached 3
per cent higher in New York than in London.
In the case of francs forward quotations which had been below spot,
so long as money was dear in London, rose above the spot quotations,
thus indicating that the relative dearness of money in London as
compared with Paris had disappeared; whilst in the case of lire forward
quotations, although still below spot quotations, rose, under the same
influence, nearer to the spot level. Nevertheless, in the case of both
these currencies, a preponderance of bearish anticipations about their
future prospects probably also played a part, for the reasons given in
detail below, in producing the observed result.
The most interesting figures, however, are those relating to marks,
which illustrate vividly what I have mentioned on page 23 above
concerning the enormous money rates of interest current in Germany
subsequent to the collapse of October 1922, as a result of the effort
of the real rate of interest to remain positive in face of a general
anticipation of a catastrophic collapse of the monetary unit. It will
be noticed that the effective short money rate of interest in terms
of marks ranged from 50 per cent per annum upwards, until finally the
quotations were merely nominal.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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