Out of the various practical conclusions which might be drawn from this
discussion and the figures which accompany it, I will pick out three.
1. Those exchanges in which the fluctuations are wildest and the
merchant is most in need of facilities for hedging his risk are
precisely those in which facilities for forward dealing at moderate
rates are least developed. But this is to be explained, not
necessarily by the instability of the exchange in itself, but by
certain accompanying circumstances, such as distrust of the country’s
internal arrangements or its banking credit, a fear of the sudden
imposition of exchange regulations or of a moratorium, and the
other analogous influences mentioned above (pp. 126–7). There is no
theoretical reason why there should not be an excellent forward market
in a highly unstable exchange. In those countries, therefore, where
regulation is still premature, it may nevertheless be possible to
mitigate the evil consequences of fluctuation by organising facilities
for forward dealings.
This is a function which the State banks of such countries could
usefully perform. For this they must either themselves command a
certain amount of foreign currency or they must provide facilities for
accepting short-period deposits in their own currency from foreign
bankers, on conditions which inspire these bankers with complete
confidence in the freedom and liquidity of such deposits. Various
technical devices could be suggested. But the simplest method might be
for the State banks themselves to enter the forward market and offer
to buy or sell forward exchange at a reasonable discount or premium on
the spot quotation. I suggest that they should deal not direct with the
public but only with approved banks and financial houses, from whom
they should require adequate security; that they should quote every day
their rates for buying and selling exchange either one or three months
forward; but that such quotation should take the form, not of a price
for the exchange itself, but of a percentage difference between spot
and forward, and should be a quotation for the double transaction of
a spot deal one way and a simultaneous forward deal the other--_e.g._
the Bank of Italy might offer to sell spot sterling and buy forward
sterling at a premium of ⅛ per cent per month for the former over the
latter, and to buy spot sterling and sell forward sterling at par.
For the transaction of such business the State banks would require
to command a certain amount of resources abroad, either in cash or
in borrowing facilities. But this fund would be a revolving one,
automatically replenished at the maturity of the forward contracts, so
that it need not be on anything like the scale necessary for a fund
for the purpose of supporting the exchange. Nor is it a business which
involves any more risk than is inherent in all banking business as
such; from exchange risk proper is free.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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