After the Rain : how the West lost the EastVaknin, Samuel
History
After the Rain : how the West lost the East
Vaknin, Samuel
Europe, Eastern -- Economic conditions -- 1989-; Europe, Eastern -- Politics and government -- 1989-
It tries to juggle all these goals in the thinning air of the global
capital markets. There is little dispute that the IMF is indispensable.
Without it, the world monetary system would have contracted more
readily and many countries would be worse off. It imposes monetary and
fiscal discipline, forces governments to plan, and introduces painful
adjustments and reforms. It serves as a convenient scapegoat: the
politicians can blame it for the economic woes that their voters
endure. Lately, it began to lend credibility to countries and to manage
crisis situations. But, this scapegoat role allows politicians in
Russia to hide behind the IMF leaf and blame the results of their
incompetence and corruption on it. Where a reformed market economy
could have provided a swifter and more resolute adjustment - the
diversion of scarce human and financial resources to negotiating with
the IMF seems to have prolonged the agony. The abrogation of
responsibility by decision makers poses a moral hazard: if successful -
the credit goes to the politicians, if not - the IMF is always to
blame. Negative feelings, which would have normally brought about a
real, transparent, corruption-free, efficient market economy are vented
and deflected.
The IMF money in Russia encourages corrupt and inefficient spending
because it cannot really be controlled and monitored. The rule is: the
more resources the Federal and regional governments have - the more
will be lost to corruption and inefficiency. The IMF cannot rationalize
spending in Russia because its control mechanisms are flawed: they rely
too heavily on local, official input and they are remote (from
Washington). They are also underfunded.
Despite these shortcomings, the IMF assumed - and not only in the case
of Russia - two roles which were not historically allocated to it. It
became a country credit risk-rating agency. The absence of an IMF seal
of approval could - and usually does - mean financial suffocation.
Russia experienced it last month. No banks or donor countries extend
credit to a country lacking the IMF's endorsement. On the other hand,
as authority (to rate) shifted - so did responsibility. The IMF became
a super-guarantor of the debts of both the public and private sectors.
This encourages irresponsible lending and investments ("why worry, the
IMF will bail me out in case of default"). This is the "Moral Hazard":
the safety net is fast being transformed into a licence to gamble. The
profits accrue to the gambler - the losses to the IMF. This does not
encourage prudence or discipline. There is no better example than the
bloated and wrongly priced Russian market for short-term government
obligations, the GKOs.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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