After the Rain : how the West lost the EastVaknin, Samuel
History
After the Rain : how the West lost the East
Vaknin, Samuel
Europe, Eastern -- Economic conditions -- 1989-; Europe, Eastern -- Politics and government -- 1989-
The IMF has yet to adopt the "client-orientated" approach. It harbours
deep (and oft-justified) distrust of the willingness of governments to
blindly follow its dictates. It is a paranoid organization, based on
authoritarian techniques of "negotiations" and "agreement". Euphemisms
rule. Normally, the IMF holds "consultations" with the host
governments. These are rather one-sided affairs. The governments are
needy and impoverished ones. They lack the cadre of educated people
needed in order to truly engage the IMF in constructive discourse. They
are intimidated by the bullying tactics of the IMF and of its
emissaries. The tone is imperial and impatient.
Tom:
The IMF clearly sees itself as the authority on international
development ideology. International development becomes an ideological
construction, with subsets of subjective terms: free trade, financial
contact, and economic vision. Many of these terms are defined in such a
way that they enframe that which they discuss. The ideological position
of the influential members is often significantly different from the
developing countries. Sadly, the ideology only becomes reality when it
is part of every day life in the developing nations.
Sam:
Worse still, the IMF's language is riddled with contradictions in terms
and logical fallacies. Let us review a few: International monetary
co-operation in IMF lingo means exchange (rate) stability. But with
such stability the expansion and balanced growth of international trade
is not achievable. Trade is based on dynamic exchange rate disparities.
Moreover, there is nothing inherently wrong in such dynamism. The
changing disparities reflect the relative advantages of the countries
involved. In a world of fixed exchange rates - trade stagnates. And
what is "balanced" growth anyhow? Trade has been growing at 3-5%
annually for a few years now. Is this balanced, overdone or
insufficient, as some free trade zealots cry out?
Additionally, a regime of stable exchange rates won't go far towards
facilitating the second result: to shorten the duration and lessen the
degree of disequilibrium in the international balances of payments of
members. If a country runs a gigantic balance of payments deficit but
is not permitted by the IMF to devalue its currency, in the name of
exchange rate stability - its balance of payments is only likely to
worsen. Take Macedonia: with a 14% of GDP deficit in its BOP - it MUST
devalue and URGENTLY. Its currency is HEAVILY overvalued and the whole
economy is deflating. Yet, the IMF is about to repeat there the same
grave error it committed in Russia: to protect the currency, the whole
system is drained of liquidity (demonetised), interest rates are kept
insanely high and the balance of payments deficit skyrockets, until the
inevitable collapse. If the IMF is interested in self-perpetuating
crisis situations in order to preserve its clout - it is doing a fine
job indeed.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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