After the Rain : how the West lost the EastVaknin, Samuel
History
After the Rain : how the West lost the East
Vaknin, Samuel
Europe, Eastern -- Economic conditions -- 1989-; Europe, Eastern -- Politics and government -- 1989-
No medium in the USA (not to mention the wide world) has eschewed such
legislation. There are sure to be demands to allocate time (or space,
or software, or content, or hardware, or bandwidth) to "minorities", to
"public affairs", to "community business". This is a tax that the
business sector will have to pay to fend off the eager legislator and
his nuisance value.
All this is bound to lead to a monopolization of hosts and servers. The
important broadcast channels will diminish in number and be subjected
to severe content restrictions. Sites, which will not succumb to these
requirements - will be deleted or neutralized. Content guidelines
(euphemism for censorship) exist, even as we write, in all major
content providers (CompuServe, AOL, Prodigy).
The last, determining, phase is The Bloodbath.
This is the phase of consolidation. The number of players is severely
reduced. The number of browser types will be limited to 2-3 (Netscape,
Microsoft and which else?). Networks will merge to form privately owned
mega-networks. Servers will merge to form hyper-servers run on
supercomputers. The number of ISPs will be considerably diminished.
50 companies ruled the greater part of the media markets in the USA in
1983. The number in 1995 was 18. At the end of the century they will
number 6.
This is the stage when companies - fighting for financial survival -
strive to acquire as many users/listeners/viewers as possible. The
programming is shallowed to the lowest (and widest) common denominator.
Shallow programming dominates as long as the bloodbath proceeds.
In hindsight, 20 years hence, we might come to understand that
computers improved our capacity to do things differently and more
productively. But one thing is fast becoming clear. The added benefits
of IT are highly sensitive to and dependent upon historical,
psychosocial and economic parameters outside the perimeter of the
technology itself. When it is introduced, how it is introduced, for
which purposes is it put to use and even by who it was introduced -
largely determine the costs of its introduction and, therefore, its
feasibility and contribution to the enhancement of productivity. The
CEE countries better take note.
(Article written on July 26, 1999 and published August 9, 1999
in "Central Europe Review" volume 1, issue 7)
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E P I L O G U E
The Balkans, an eternal crossroad of different civilizations and
cultures even today, is considered to be the "navel of the world" or as
Sam Vaknin puts it in his erratic, eruptive, intellectual volcano of a
book, "After the Rain - How the West Lost the East" - "is the
unconscious of the world" ("The Mind of Darkness") or worse, probably a
navel, but "the Balkan is a body without a brain" ("Homo Balkanus").
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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