After the Rain : how the West lost the EastVaknin, Samuel
History
After the Rain : how the West lost the East
Vaknin, Samuel
Europe, Eastern -- Economic conditions -- 1989-; Europe, Eastern -- Politics and government -- 1989-
There are three major camps in Russia today. There are the "Reformists"
- young, well-educated, pro Western, with economic savvy,
forward-looking, corrupt. There is the "Old Guard" - old, guarded,
backward, centralist, anti Western (actually, anti American), corrupt.
And there are the nationalists - ideologically eclectic, rigid,
radical, dangerous, corrupt.
Yeltsin is the ultimate puppet master. The Old Guard was good to
stabilize a nose-diving economy and a disintegrating body politic. They
new where the levers are and how to use them, they possessed all the
right dossiers, they were chums with the Communist Duma. But they
proved to be too independent and too dangerous. They aspired to the
presidency (Primakov). They were too anti-Western and, thus, risked the
only reliable source of financing in the absence of tax collection (the
IMF funds). They espoused geopolitical brinkmanship. They were cold war
in an era of defrosted war. There is no money in cold war mantras. In
an age when money is the only ideology - they did not adhere to the
party line. They posed a threat not only to Yeltsin's authority - but
also to the economic well being of Russia.
Having looked into the abyss in the early stages of the Kosovo crisis
(remember the re-directed ballistic nuclear missiles) - Yeltsin engaged
in a surprisingly elegant volte-face. He appointed Chernomyrdin, a
pro-Western, quasi-Reformist, to contain the Kosovo damage. And he
fired Primakov, the hawk. The IMF gave Russia 4.5 billion dollars that
it swore blue in the face not to give Russia only a month before. A
coincidence, needless to add.
Yeltsin doesn't give a hoot about Kosovo. All he wanted was to
re-establish his domestic authority and to quash especially insolent
and increasingly dangerous investigations into his murky financial
dealings. Kosovo was an added bonus. A joker in an already excellent
hand. Yeltsin put it to deft use.
By sending Chernomyrdin to sort out the Balkan mess, Yeltsin killed a
flock of birds with nary a stone. He signalled to the West that a
pro-Western, pro-Reformist team is in control again and that the bad
guys have been consigned to oblivion. He signalled to the Duma and to
politicians of every colour and denomination who is the boss. The Duma
took the hint and promptly dropped the impeachment charges and
confirmed the nondescript (but very ominous) Stepashin as the next
scapegoat. He enhanced the geopolitical standing of Russia and already
converted some of it into hard cash, averting an otherwise certain
default of the Russian Federation. He allied himself with most of the
"progressives" and "liberals" of the world from China to the Guardian
in London. And, in his role as peacekeeper, he effectively extricated
Russia from the war psychosis that Messrs. Primakov et al. were trying
to plunge Russia into.
But why did the West - especially the USA - collaborate with this St.
Vitus dance?
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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