This formula is converted back into percentage departures from the secular trend modified seasonally, and finally into hog prices as affected by hog receipts. The supply price of hogs as compared with the actual is shown in Chart VII. [Illustration: Chart VI—Dotted line is the demand price of hogs, based on bank clearings. Irregular solid line is actual price, and straight line is secular trend. ] [Illustration: Chart VII—Dotted line is supply price of hogs, based on receipts at Chicago. Irregular solid line is actual price, and straight line is secular trend. ] [Illustration: Chart VIII—Dotted line is supply-and-demand price of hogs, based on bank clearings and hog receipts. Irregular solid line is actual price. ] Using the longer formula on page 89, we get: Hog prices equal .56 bank clearings minus .56 hog receipts. Or converted into percentage departures from the secular trend corrected seasonally: .90 of bank clearings in percentage departures minus .51 of hog receipts in percentage departures equals the percentage which hog prices depart from their secular corrected seasonally. For instance, in January, 1903, bank clearings were 8 per cent above the secular corrected seasonally, and hog receipts were 5 per cent below. Eight times .90 plus 5 times .51 gives 9.7 as the percentage which we would expect hog prices to be over their secular corrected seasonally. The secular for January, 1903, was $5.19; 9.7 per cent of $5.19 gives 50 cents. The secular corrected seasonally for January, 1903, is $4.98. Add 50 cents to $4.98 and we get $5.48 as the price which we would have expected heavy hogs to sell at Chicago in January, 1903, on the basis of good business and small hog receipts. Actually, hogs sold for $6.60, or $1.12 over the price predicted by formula. This is done for all the months from 1903 to 1916, and the supply-and-demand price of hogs, as derived from hog receipts at Chicago and bank clearings outside of New York is charted in Chart VIII, in comparison with the actual prices. PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF HOG PRICES We assume that at the present time, and probably for some time to come, we are on a basis of 90 per cent above 1913 for hog prices, and 100 per cent over 1913 in bank clearings. This conclusion is based to some extent on the reasoning presented in the June monthly supplement of the Harvard Review of Economic Statistics for the year 1919.