On this basis, the secular trend of heavy hog prices at Chicago, modified seasonally, should be roughly as follows for the several years beginning with 1919: January, $14.35; February, $15.07; March, $15.82; April, $15.67; May, $15.22; June, $15.22; July, $15.52; August, $15.22; September, $15.52; October, $15.07; November, $14.16, and December, $13.86.[8] This is on the assumption that hog prices and prices generally will have for their normal mean a level 90 per cent above the 1913 level. It is expected that in a rough way hog prices will depart from this level according to the size of hog receipts and the condition of general business as expressed by bank clearings. (During 1920, and possibly 1921, heavy exports will doubtless have influence.) The secular trend of bank clearings outside New York, modified seasonally, for the year beginning with 1919, is taken as: January, $13,952,000,000; February, $11,648,000,000; March, $13,056,000,000; April, $12,800,000,000; May, $12,416,000,000; June, $12,416,000,000; July, $12,544,000,000; August, $11,648,000,000; September, $12,032,000; October, $13,824,000,000; November, $13,440,000,000, and December, $13,824,000,000. The secular trend of hog receipts at Chicago in millions of pounds, modified seasonally, for the period beginning with 1919, is taken as: January, 184; February, 163; March, 143; April, 118; May, 139; June, 139; July, 121; August, 121; September, 103; October, 120; November, 144, and December, 180. Based on the formula as secured in the preceding chapter (hog price equals .56 bank clearings minus .56 hog receipts), we would expect the following scale of hog prices in January, when receipts follow the secular trend (184,000,000 pounds at Chicago), but bank clearings are variable: Bank Clearings in January. Heavy Hog Prices. $11,000,000,000 $11.35 11,500,000,000 11.85 16,500,000,000 16.85 In like manner, tables may be made up for each month of the year, the idea being that for each $500,000,000 the bank clearings outside of New York are above or below the secular trend seasonally modified, fifty cents is added to or subtracted from the secular trend hog price seasonally modified. Thus for April the tables would be: Bank Clearings in April. Heavy Hog Prices. $ 9,800,000,000 $12.67 12,800,000,000 15.67 15,800,000,000 18.67 Taking the tables as worked out for bank clearings and hog prices, we next modify for hog receipts. An excess of 33,000,000 pounds of hog receipts at Chicago in a month means on the average $1.80 lower prices, and vice versa. Thus, in January, with bank clearings at $13,952,000,000, we would expect the following prices with various sizes of hog receipts: