'Perhaps you are right,' Merrill admitted. 'I'm not telling you or any one else exactly what my opinion is about America's policy,' Lavendale continued. 'I'll only remind you that, even when those truculent forefathers of ours went out to fight, they stopped to put on their armour. Is there anything fresh?' 'I don't know,' was the somewhat doubtful reply. 'There is a queer sort of feeling of apprehension everywhere this morning. The Chief's been round to see the Prime Minister and on to the Admiralty. There's a rumour that he went round to Buckingham Palace, too. Looks as though there were something up.' 'You know all about it, I suppose,' Lavendale remarked quietly. 'Not a thing!' The young American knocked the ash from his cigarette. 'The history of this war,' he went on, 'will make mighty interesting reading, but there's another history, a history that will never be written, the history of the unrecorded things. Gee, that would make people gossip if they could get hold of only a few chapters of it! You know there's something strange afoot, Reggie. So do I, though we sit here lying to one another. I doubt whether the man in the street will ever know.' Merrill selected another cigarette. 'I don't see where you come in here, Ambrose.' 'Neither do I,' the other agreed. 'Still, the truth comes to light in strange ways sometimes. Last night I had a cable from a friend in Petrograd, advising me to buy all Russian securities.' 'Well?' 'If there is to be any change for the better in the valuations of Russian stock,' Lavendale continued slowly, 'that is to say any immediate change, it can only mean one thing.' Merrill struggled hard to preserve his expression of polite vacuity. 'There are very few people,' he murmured, 'who really understand Russia.' Lavendale shrugged his shoulders. 'It isn't exactly my show, you know!' 'It ought to be,' Merrill retorted curtly. 'Why?' 'Just common-sense. If we don't win in this war, it will be your turn next. Japan and Germany you'll have to face--you can take my word for that--and I hope you'll like it. If we lose our Fleet, it's good-bye to American independence.' 'Plain and simple words, young fellow!' 'Not so plain or so simple as they are true.' Lavendale threw away his cigarette and stretched out his hand for his hat. 'Well,' he said, 'I used to flatter myself that I was an out-and-out neutral, but I'm beginning to fancy that my sympathies are leaning a little towards your side of the show. Anyhow, I've no reason to keep secret the little I know about this affair--in fact I came down here to tell you. New York was talking openly last night of peace being proclaimed between Germany and Russia within a week.' 'We've tried her sorely,' Merrill confessed doggedly, 'but I don't believe it.' Lavendale rose to his feet.