The commerce with the United States of America is one of those that has fallen off, and is the only one that does not appear to be directly connected with these causes. There are some reasons, however, for thinking that it had an indirect connection with them. Whatever interrupts our connection with the continent of Europe, or renders it unsafe, has, in some degree, the same effect with a stagnation of credit at home. This has taken place; and as it of course affected every branch of trade, that with America felt the blow amongst the rest, and, indeed, more than in proportion; for, as there is no course of exchange with any town in America, and as the credits there are long, the exportation to that country suffers in a particular manner when there is any heaviness in the money market here. Thus it was that, in 1772, the American exports suffered a diminution of two millions from the stagnation; and, in 1793, of rather more than half a million. In the former case, the American trade seems alone almost to have suffered, and, even in the latter case, it fell off more than in its just proportion. It has been observed, that the improving our manufactures at home is the most secure support of our foreign trade, which chiefly depends on superior skill, industry, and invention, the wages of labour being greatly against us. We shall consider by what stability of tenure we hold that advantage. The nation or individual that proceeds first in improvement is always uncertain how much farther it can be carried; those who follow, on the contrary, know what can be done, and therefore act with certainty and confidence. As to individuals, those who are the foremost in improvement have great difficulties to encounter; they seldom can procure the pecuniary aid necessary, and always do so with great difficulty; whereas, those who copy, without half their merit, or, [end of page #202] perhaps, without any merit at all, meet with support from every quarter. {164} From this it is very evident, that the nation the farthest advanced in invention has only to remain stationary a few years, and it will soon be overtaken, and perhaps surpassed. Holland, Flanders, and France, were all originally superior, in the arts of manufacturing most goods, to England; and, indeed, it is no great length of time since we obtained the superiority over Holland in several articles of importance, and in particular where machinery was wanting. If it were necessary, it would not be difficult to give examples, to shew with what eagerness those who imported inventions were taken by the hand, on the bare probability of success, while the inventors of machines, and of methods of manufacturing entirely new, and of still more importance, were left to grope their way, and, until crowned with success, rather considered as objects of pity than of praise or admiration. {165}