Appletons' Popular Science Monthly, April 1899: Volume LIV, No. 6, April 1899Various
Science
Appletons' Popular Science Monthly, April 1899: Volume LIV, No. 6, April 1899
Various
Science -- Periodicals; Technology -- Periodicals
[10] The Birds of Eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Prepared under
the direction of the Delaware Valley Ornithological Club. By Witmer
Stone. Philadelphia, 1894.
[11] Stone. The Birds of Eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
GUESSING, AS INFLUENCED BY NUMBER PREFERENCES.
BY F. B. DRESSLAR.
About two years ago a certain progressive clothing company of Los
Angeles, California, procured a very large squash--so large, indeed,
as to attract much attention. This they placed uncut in a window of
their place of business, and advertised that they would give one
hundred dollars in gold to the one guessing the number of seeds it
contained. In case two or more persons guessed the correct number, the
money was to be divided equally among them. The only prerequisite for
an opportunity to guess was that the one wishing to guess should walk
inside and register his name, address, and his guess in the notebook
kept for that purpose.
The result of this offer was that 7,700 people registered guesses, and
but three of these guessed 811, the number of seeds which the squash
contained.
It occurred to me that a study of these guesses would reveal some
interesting number preferences, if any existed, for the conditions
were unusually favorable for calling forth naïve and spontaneous
results, there being no way of approximating the number of seeds by
calculation, and very little or no definite experience upon which to
rely for guidance. It seemed probable, therefore, that the guesses
would cover a wide range, and by reason of this furnish evidence of
whatever number preference might exist. It is undoubtedly safe to
assume, too, that the guesses made were honest attempts to state as
nearly as possible best judgments under conditions given; but even if
some of the guesses were more or less facetiously made, the data would
be equally valuable for the main purpose in hand.
According to the theory of probability, had there been no preference
at all for certain digits or certain combinations of digits within
the limits of the guesses, one figure would occur about as often as
another in units' or tens' place. It was argued, therefore, that any
marked or persistent variation from such regularity in such a great
number of cases would reveal what might be termed an unconscious
preference for such numbers or digits for these places.
The purpose of this study, then, was to determine whether or not there
existed in the popular mind, under the conditions offered, any such
preferences.
After the very arduous and tedious task of collating and classifying
all the guesses for men and women separately had been done, the
following facts appeared:
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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