Appletons' Popular Science Monthly, April 1899: Volume LIV, No. 6, April 1899Various
Science
Appletons' Popular Science Monthly, April 1899: Volume LIV, No. 6, April 1899
Various
Science -- Periodicals; Technology -- Periodicals
It would evidently be unsafe to generalize upon the basis of this
study, notwithstanding the large number of guesses considered.
However, it seems to me that the results here obtained at least
suggest a field of inquiry which promises interesting returns. If it
be true, as here suggested, that odd numbers are preferred by
guessers, advantage could be taken of this preference in many ways.
Furthermore, as I suspect, it may be that this probable preference
points to a habit of mind which more or less influences results not
depending strictly on guessing. It has been shown, for example, that
the length of criminal sentences has been largely affected by
preferences for 5 or multiples of 5--that is to say, where judges have
power to fix the length of sentence within certain limits, there is a
strong probability that they will be influenced in their judgments by
the habitual use of 5 or its multiples. Here it would seem that
unconscious preference overrides what one has a right to consider the
most careful and impartial judgments possible, based upon actual and
well-digested data.[12]
Another thing is noticeable in these guesses. The consciousness of
number beyond 1,000 falls off very rapidly. The difference in the
values of 1,000 and 1,500 seems to have had less weight with the
guessers than a difference of 50 had at any place below 1,000. And so,
in a way, 1,000 seems to mark the limit of any sort of definite mental
measurement. This fact is more and more emphasized as the numbers
representing the guesses increase until one can see there exists
absolutely no conception of the value of numbers. For example, many
guessed 1,000,000, while several guessed more than 10,000,000.
Guessing means, with many people, no attempt at any sort of reasonable
measurement, but rather an attempt to express their guess in such a
way as to afford them the greatest amount of mental relief. And this
relief can not be wholly accomplished without satisfying number
preferences. Therefore, guessing is likely to exhibit, in a greater or
less degree, some habitual lines of preference subject to
predetermination. It may be that much practical advantage has been
taken of these facts in games of chance where number selections play
an important part.
FOOTNOTE:
[12] See H. Le Poer. Influence of Number in Criminal Sentences.
Harper's Weekly, May 14, 1896.
CONCERNING WEASELS.
BY WILLIAM E. CRAM.
[Illustration: A Weasel standing on the ground]
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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