Appletons' Popular Science Monthly, September 1899: Vol. LV, May to October, 1899Various
Science
Appletons' Popular Science Monthly, September 1899: Vol. LV, May to October, 1899
Various
Science -- Periodicals; Technology -- Periodicals
WIND.--An explanation of the various curves in Fig. 2 may serve for
the series following, so I give it somewhat in detail. The vertical
distances from the base line indicate per cents, and the distances
from left to right, divided into columns, the maximum velocity of the
wind per hour for the days tabulated. In the "normal" curve every day
for five years was considered, and it was found that seven per cent of
the days for that period showed a maximum velocity of between one and
ten miles (first column), forty-eight per cent a maximum velocity of
between ten and twenty miles (second column), nineteen per cent a
maximum velocity of between twenty and thirty miles, and so on, as
indicated by the curve. Now, it can readily be seen that this normal
curve may also be considered the expectancy curve--_if the wind has no
effect_. That is, if forty-eight per cent of the days of the year show
a maximum velocity of the wind, between ten and twenty miles an hour,
the law of probability would give us the same per cent of the crime
for the year on such days if this meteorological condition were not
effective.
What we do find, however, is indicated by the other curves, and any
increase of crime over expectancy may in this case be ascribed to the
wind. We notice that for slight velocities (one to twenty miles an
hour) the crime curves are below that of expectancy, but we can see
that if the sum of all the per cents for any one curve is one hundred,
and one is forced above the other at any part, there must be a
corresponding deficiency at some other part. So we may, perhaps, with
justice suppose that these mild velocities do not exert a positively
quieting effect emotionally, but simply a less stimulating effect than
the higher ones. For velocities of between twenty and thirty miles a
marked effect is noticeable, and under those conditions the proportion
of suicides to that expected is 37:29; velocities of from thirty to
forty miles, 14:11; of forty to fifty miles, 7:2; of fifty to sixty
miles, 0.4:2.6; of fifty to sixty miles, 0.2:2. The curve for murders
shows the increase to be slightly less than for suicides, but the same
general relation is preserved throughout. The value of such curves is,
of course, somewhat proportional to the number of observations made
and recorded, and we must confess that two hundred and sixty
(suicides) and one hundred and eighty (murders) is a hardly sufficient
number from which to deduce a definite law, but we can hardly doubt,
even considering this somewhat limited number, that the wind is, in
our problem, a factor of no mean importance.
[Illustration: FIG. 3.]
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