As to what may be expected in future--Professor Johnston anticipates
the gradual diminution of the supply, from the circumstance, already
adverted to, of the progressive exhaustion of the newer lands of the
Union, and the rapid increase of population in the old. If several
of the Western States, he argues, have even already ceased to raise
enough wheat for the supply of their present inhabitants, and are
compelled to draw largely on the produce of the remote States of
Illinois, Ohio, &c.--and if the productive power of these new lands
is annually becoming less, the virgin soils more distant, and the
transport of subsistence more difficult--if this is the state of
matters now, what will it be in 1860, when immigration and natural
increase will probably have raised the population of the Union to
some thirty-four millions? "It is very safe," he concludes, "to
say that in 1860 their wheat-exporting capability will have become
so small as to give our British farmers very little cause for
apprehension." It may perchance occur to these gentlemen, that the
consolation Professor Johnston here offers them is not very cheering
after all; and as long as they see the provision stores in every
market town piled up with the interloping flour barrels of New York,
and their own waggons returning home with their loads unsold, it is
not to be wondered at if they are not greatly exhilarated with the
prospect of what may possibly happen nine years hence. And slender
as is the hope deferred here held out to them, it rests, we fear, on
very questionable grounds.
Professor Johnston's opinion is founded on two suppositions: 1st,
That the exhaustion of the Western States, on which he dwells so
much, is proceeding so rapidly as already to affect the markets
of the eastern districts; 2d, That these older districts will be
unable to increase the quantity of produce raised within their own
boundaries, without so adding to its cost as to prevent its being
profitably exported.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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