only mention one other fact, which seems in itself a sufficient
refutation of the theory Professor Johnston has taken up. The causes
which he thinks are so soon to dry up the supplies now derived
from the West are of no recent or sudden emergence. The process
of exhaustion on the new lands, and the rapid population of the
old, has been going on for many years. If, then, these causes are
so influential as he imagines, their effects should at least be
apparent in a gradual increase of the prices of bread-stuffs in
the Eastern States. Now, no such effect is to be found. On the
contrary, we find that, during the last twenty years, the price of
wheat, as well as of maize, in the chief marts of the east, has been
_steadily diminishing, instead of increasing_. We extract from the
returns published by the Board of Trade the annexed comparison[3]
of the prices of wheat flour at New York, during two periods, from
which it appears that, in the very State where the results of
Professor Johnston's hypothesis ought to have been most manifest,
the experience of twenty years shows a reduction of price instead
of an enhancement, notwithstanding that the latter period in the
comparison embraces the years of the potato failure. An examination
of similar returns from Baltimore and New Orleans establishes the
same fact, namely, that the tendency of prices for twenty years past
is _not upwards, but downwards_--a fact quite irreconcilable with
the supposed rapid exhaustion of the wheat soils of the interior.
[1] The estimated produce of wheat in these five States in the year
1847 was 38,400,000 bushels.
[2] Quantity of bread-stuffs exported from the whole of the United
States, and from the ports of New York and Philadelphia, in the
years 1842-46 inclusive:--
| Wheat | Flour | Indian Corn | Indian Corn
| (bushels.) |(barrels.) | (bushels.) |(Meal barrels.)
|------------+-----------+-------------+---------------
United States, | 2,691,711 | 7,048,356 | 4,764,450 | 1,199,255
|------------+-----------+-------------+---------------
New York, | 1,985,900 | 2,610,944 | 2,443,733 | 242,294
Philadelphia, | 474,788 | 1,055,382 | 677,530 | 565,682
|------------+-----------+-------------+---------------
Total of both ports, | 2,460,688 | 3,666,326 | 3,121,263 | 807,976
[3] Comparative statement of the prices, per barrel, of best wheat
flour at New York, (taken from the _Monthly Averages_) in 1829-33,
and 1844-48:--
FIRST PERIOD.
1829, Dr. 6.23
1830, 5.02
1831, 5.84
1832, 5.70
1833, 5.70
----
Average of five years, 5.69
SECOND PERIOD.
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