possessed, too, a great personal ascendancy over the young Emperor of
Austria. And, lastly, at this time Austria had a hostile altercation
with Turkey, which would render it more than ever difficult for her to
take part with the Sultan.
It might be calculated that Prussia would follow the lead of Austria.
Her interests were the same in kind, but far less in degree. Once
satisfied that full guarantees for the freedom of the Danube would be
given, she would no longer have special interest in the subject.
As to France, there seemed to be no special reason why she should
interfere. And if she should interfere, the Czar’s sentiments towards
the new Empire were such as would rather lead him to disdainful defiance
than conciliation.
At first he anticipated no difficulty in persuading the English
Government to join in his designs. Finding, however, by the rejection of
his overtures, that he could not hope for the support of England, he
probably postponed the extreme measures of aggression. But, for the
reasons we have stated in a former paragraph, he was unwilling to let
the opportunity pass totally unimproved; and hence the demands of
Mentschikoff for granting the protectorate of the Greek Church in Turkey
to the Czar.
It was Lord Stratford’s share in the diplomatic contest that ensued,
which first gave England prominence in the dispute. And whether the part
he took was in accordance with instructions from his Government, or was
due to the influence of his personal character, the result was to assure
England that the predominance of her Ambassador in the councils of the
Porte, whatever advantage it might confer, carried with it grave
responsibility. When Mentschikoff withdrew in anger from the scene,
England was, in the opinion of her own Ministers, committed to the
defence of Turkey.
We have seen that the Czar’s original design was made dependent on the
concurrence of England. When he found that this was unattainable, the
design was modified. He now found that even in this modified form
England would not only not concur, but would oppose it. Why then did he
persist? It was because he did not believe that the opposition of
England would go the length of war.
Lord Aberdeen, the English Premier, besides being the personal friend of
Nicholas, and therefore disposed to view Russian policy with comparative
indulgence, was the open and professed friend of peace at any price. He
had that horror of war which in a statesman is an unpardonable and fatal
weakness. And in this particular he was believed only to represent the
feeling of the English people. The Czar, in common with most of the
world, was convinced that they were entirely absorbed in the pursuit of
commerce. He took the Exhibition of 1851 for the national confession of
faith. He believed that England had no god but gold, and that Mr Cobden
was her prophet.
This fallacy Mr Kinglake exposes in his happiest style:—
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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