Brazil today and tomorrowJoyce, L. E. Elliott (Lilian Elwyn Elliott)
History
Brazil today and tomorrow
Joyce, L. E. Elliott (Lilian Elwyn Elliott)
Brazil; Brazil -- Economic conditions
The present rate of exchange, which is a recovery from the first panicky
drop of paper here, as in many other parts of the world on the outbreak
of the European War, is below a rate which the efforts of Brazilian
financial men succeeded in preserving for eight years by the
establishment of the Caixa de Conversão; continuance of exchange at a
lowered level is probably partly the result of the issue of extensive
amounts of inconvertible paper into circulation for budgetary purposes
since the middle of 1914, and partly on account of the heavy demand for
bills of exchange on London, which began to have their effect from the
time of the Balkan trouble of 1913. The drop would without doubt have
been much sharper were it not for three causes of strength: the first is
the unprecedentedly large trade balance in favour of Brazil in 1915,
amounting to nearly £28,000,000 ($140,000,000); the second is the
Funding Loan which the Federal Government succeeded in making with its
European creditors in the latter part of 1914 and which prevented the
outflow of other large sums in gold; and, third, the strong gold
reserves of the Caixa de Conversão. It is true that these reserves have
been drawn upon until they now stand at less than one-fifth of their
level at the beginning of 1913, but without that stream of gold and its
strengthening effect on circulation it is reasonable to suppose that
exchange would have suffered to a greater extent.
The Caixa de Conversão, which I will henceforth call the Conversion
Office, is Brazil’s concrete effort to fix a rate of exchange; it was
excellent in conception and performed its function admirably until
unforeseen world conditions overpowered its operation. After the
establishment of a Republic in Brazil large issues of paper were for the
first time put into circulation, with the accompaniment of successive
falls in exchange; the proclamation of the overthrow of the Empire found
Brazil with not more than 199,000 contos in paper, but eight years later
the amount had risen to nearly 790,000 and Brazil was obliged to suspend
interest on her debt to Europe. A Funding Loan of ten million pounds
sterling was arranged with Rothschild’s, which had the effect of
checking the fall in the value of the milreis, then (1897–98) down to
eight pence or nine pence, and even touching the threatening level of
six pence; the arrangement included destruction of the debased paper in
considerable quantities, and as this work was accomplished exchange
steadily rose until in another ten years’ time, 1908, outstanding
inconvertible paper amounted to less than 650,000 contos, and the value
of the milreis was sixteen pence. But by this time the Conversion Office
was in operation, thanks largely to the efforts of President Affonso
Penna; this office in 1906 began receiving deposits of gold and issuing
against them convertible paper bills having the fixed exchange value of
fifteen pence; these bills always equalling the amount of gold in the
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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