Classics of modern science : $b (Copernicus to Pasteur)
History
Classics of modern science : $b (Copernicus to Pasteur)
Science; Science -- History
_Concluding remarks on the consistency of the theory of gradual
change with the existence of great breaks in the series._--To
return to the general argument pursued in this chapter, it is assumed,
for reasons above explained, that a slow change of species is in
simultaneous operation everywhere throughout the habitable surface
of sea and land; whereas the fossilization of plants and animals is
confined to those areas where new strata are produced. These areas,
as we have seen, are always shifting their position, so that the
fossilizing process, by means of which the commemoration of the
particular state of the organic world, at any given time, is effected,
may be said to move about, visiting and revisiting different tracts in
succession.
To make still more clear the supposed working of this machinery, I
shall compare it to a somewhat analogous case that might be imagined
to occur in the history of human affairs. Let the mortality of the
population of a large country represent the successive extinction
of species, and the births of new individuals the introduction of
new species. While these fluctuations are gradually taking place
everywhere, suppose commissioners to be appointed to visit each
province of the country in succession, taking an exact account of the
number, names and individual peculiarities of all the inhabitants,
and leaving in each district a register containing a record of this
information. If, after the completion of one census, another is
immediately made on the same plan, and then another, there will at
last be a series of statistical documents in each province. When
those belonging to any one province are arranged in chronological
order, the contents of such as stand next to each other will differ
according to the length of the intervals of time between the taking of
each census. If, for example, there are sixty provinces, and all the
registers are made in a single year and renewed annually, the number
of births and deaths will be so small, in proportion to the whole
of the inhabitants, during the interval between the compiling of two
consecutive documents, that the individuals described in such documents
will be nearly identical; whereas, if the survey of each of the sixty
provinces occupies all the commissioners for a whole year, so that they
are unable to revisit the same place until the expiration of sixty
years, there will then be an almost entire discordance between the
persons enumerated in two consecutive registers in the same province.
There are, undoubtedly, other causes, besides the mere quantity of
time, which may augment or diminish the amount of discrepancy. Thus,
at some periods, a pestilential disease may have lessened the average
duration of human life; or a variety of circumstances may have caused
the births to be unusually numerous, and the population to multiply;
or a province may be suddenly colonized by persons migrating from
surrounding districts.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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