But let me not be misunderstood on this point. I by no means suppose
that the _absolute quantity_ is the thing always required for its
own sake. It is in most cases required simply as a means to an end;
and very often that end is the knowledge of the _relative_ quantity.
Take, for example, the Gulf-stream. Suppose the question is asked,
to what extent does the heat conveyed by that stream influence the
climate of the North Atlantic? In order to the proper answering of this
question, the principal thing required is to know what proportion the
amount of heat conveyed by the stream into the Atlantic bears to that
received from the sun by that area. We want the _relative proportions_
of these two quantities. But how are we to obtain them? We can only
do so by determining first the _absolute_ quantity of each. We must
first measure each before we can know how much the one is greater
than the other, or, in other words, before we can know their relative
proportions. We have the means of determining the absolute amount
of heat received from the sun by a given area at any latitude with
tolerable accuracy; but the same cannot be done with equal accuracy in
regard to the amount of heat conveyed by the Gulf-stream, because the
volume and mean temperature of the stream are not known with certainty.
Nevertheless we have sufficient data to enable us to fix upon such a
maximum and minimum value to these quantities as will induce us to
admit that the truth must lie somewhere between them. In order to give
full justice to those who maintain that the Gulf-stream exercises
but little influence on climate, and to put an end to all further
objections as to the uncertainty of my data, I shall take a minimum
to which none of them surely can reasonably object, viz. that the
volume of the stream is not over 230 cubic miles per day, and the heat
conveyed per pound of water not over 12½ units. Calculating from these
data, we find that the amount of heat carried into the North Atlantic
is equal to one-sixteenth of all the heat received from the sun by that
area. There are, I presume, few who will not admit that the actual
proportion is much higher than this, probably as high as 1 to 3, or 1
to 4. But, who, without adopting the method I have pursued, could ever
have come to the conclusion that the proportion was even 1 to 16? He
might have guessed it to be 1 to 100 or 1 to 1000, but he never would
have guessed it to be 1 to 16. Hence the reason why the great influence
of the Gulf-stream as a heating agent has been so much under-estimated.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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