There are two conditions to consider. One is the strict difference
between what is causally related and its accidental concomitants,--a
difference with regard to which experience is so often misleading, for
two phenomena may occur together at the same time without being causally
connected. When a man is ninety years old and has observed, every week
in his life, that in his part of the country there is invariably a
rainfall every Tuesday, this observation is richly and often tested, yet
nobody will get the notion of causally connecting Tuesday and rain--but
only because such connection would be regarded as generally foolish. If
the thing, however, may be attributed to coincidence with a little more
difficulty, then it becomes easier to suppose a causal connection; e.g.,
as when it rains on All-souls day, or at the new moon. If the accidental
nature of the connection is still less obvious, the observation becomes
a much-trusted and energetically defended meteorological law. This
happens in all possible fields, and not only our witnesses but we
ourselves often find it very difficult to distinguish between causation
and accident. The only useful rule to follow is to presuppose accident
wherever it is not indubitably and from the first excluded, and
carefully to examine the problem for whatever causal connection it may
possibly reveal. “Whatever is united in any perception must be united
according to a general rule, but a great deal more may be present
without having any causal relation.”
The second important condition was mentioned by Schopenhauer:[134] “As
soon as we have assigned causal force to any great influence and thereby
recognized that it is efficacious, then its intensification in the face
of any resistance according to the intensity of the resistance will
produce finally the appropriate effect. Whoever cannot be bribed by ten
dollars, but vacillates, will be bribed by twenty-five or fifty.”
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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