One of my cousins who had a good deal of free time to dispose of, spent
it for several months, with the assistance of his comrade, in counting
the number of horses that passed daily, in the course of two hours, by a
café they frequented. The conscientious and controlled count indicated
that every day there came one bay horse to every four. If then, on any
given day, an incommensurably large number of brown, black, and tawny
horses came in the course of the first hour, the counters were forced to
infer that in the next 60 minutes horses of a different color must come
and that a greater number of bays must appear in order to restore the
disturbed equilibrium. Such an inference is not contradictory to the
Humian proposition. At the end of a series of examinations the counters
were compelled to say, “Through so many days we have counted one bay to
every four horses; we must therefore suppose that a similar relationship
will be maintained the next day.”
So, the lawyer, too, must suppose, although we lawyers have nothing to
do with figures, that he knows nothing a priori, and must construct his
inferences entirely from experience. And hence we must agree that our
premises for such inferences are uncertain, and often subject to
revision, and often likely, in their application to new facts, to lead
to serious mistakes, particularly if the number of experiences from
which the next moment is deduced, are too few; or if an unknown, but
very important condition is omitted.
These facts must carefully be kept in mind with reference to the
testimony of experts. Without showing ourselves suspicious, or desirous
of confusing the professional in his own work, we must consider that the
progress of knowledge consists in the collection of instances, and
anything that might have been normal in 100 cases, need not in any sense
be so when 1000 cases are in question. Yesterday the norm may have been
subject to no exception; to-day exceptions are noted; and to-morrow the
exception has become the rule.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Elsewhere in the archive
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account