It is of exceeding importance to establish such purely empiric laws in
our science, which has done little with such matters because, owing to
scanty research into most of them, we need these laws. We know
approximately that this and that have come to light so and so often, but
we have not reduced to order and studied systematically the cases before
us, and we dare not call this knowledge natural law because we have
subjected it to no inductive procedure. “The reference of any fact
discovered by experience to general laws or rules we call induction. It
embraces both observation and deduction.” Again, it may be defined as
“the generalization or universalization of our experiences; and
inference that a phenomenon occurring x times will invariably occur when
the essential circumstances remain identical. The earliest investigators
started with the simplest inductions,--that fire burns, that water flows
downward,--so that new, simple truths were continually discovered. This
is the type of scientific induction and it requires further, the
addition of certainty and accuracy.”[138]
The foregoing might have been written expressly for us lawyers, but we
have to bear in mind that we have not proceeded in our own
generalizations beyond “fire burns, water flows downward.” And such
propositions we have only derived from other disciplines. Those derived
from our own are very few indeed, and to get more we have very far to
go. Moreover, the laws of experience are in no way so certain as they
are supposed to be, even when mathematically conceived. The empirical
law is established that the sum of the three angles of a triangle is
equal to two right angles. And yet nobody, ever since the science of
surveying has been invented, has succeeded in discovering 180 degrees in
any triangle. Now then, when even such things, supposed ever since our
youth to be valid, are not at all true, or true theoretically only, how
much more careful must we be in making inferences from much less certain
rules, even though we have succeeded in using them before in many
analogous cases? The activity of a criminalist is of far too short
duration to permit him to experience any more than a very small portion
of the possibilities of life, and suggestions from foreign sources are
very rare. The situation is different in other disciplines. “Our
experience,” says James Sully,[139] “enables us to express a number of
additional convictions. We can predict political changes and scientific
developments, and can conceive of the geographical conditions at the
north pole.” Other disciplines are justified to assert such additional
propositions, but is ours? A man may have dealt for years with thieves
and swindlers, but is he justified in deducing from the inductions made
in his experience, the situation of the first murderer he deals with? Is
he right in translating things learned by dealing with educated people
to cases where only peasants appear? In all these cases what is needed
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