_Probability_ has a similar position in the sciences. The scholar who
has discovered a new thought, a new order, explanation or solution,
etc., will find it indifferent whether he has made it only highly
probable or certain. He is concerned only with the idea, and a scholar
who is dealing with the idea for its own sake will perhaps prefer to
bring it to a great probability rather than to indubitable certainty,
for where conclusive proof is presented there is no longer much interest
in further research, while probability permits and requires further
study. But our aim is certainty and proof only, and even a high degree
of probability is no better than untruth and can not count. In passing
judgment and for the purpose of judgment a high degree of probability
can have only corroborative weight, and then it is probability only when
taken in itself, and proof when taken with regard to the thing it
corroborates. If, for example, it is most probable that X was recognized
at the place of a crime, and if at the same time his evidence of alibi
has failed, his footmarks are corroborative; so are the stolen goods
which have been seen in his possession, and something he had lost at the
place of the crime which is recognized as his property, etc. In short,
when all these indices are in themselves established only as highly
probable, they give under certain circumstances, when taken together,
complete certainty, because the coincidence of so many high
probabilities must be declared impossible if X were not the criminal.
In all other cases, as we have already pointed out, _assumption_ and
probability have only a heuristic value for us lawyers. With the
assumption, we must of course count; many cases can not be begun without
the assistance of assumption. Every only half-confused case, the process
of which is unknown, requires first of all and as early as possible the
application of some assumption to its material. As soon as the account
is inconsistent the assumption must be abandoned and a fresh one and yet
again a fresh one assumed, until finally one holds its own and may be
established as probable. It then remains the center of operation, until
it becomes of itself a proof or, as we have explained, until so many
high probabilities in various directions have been gathered, that, taken
in their order, they serve evidentially. A very high degree of
probability is sufficient in making complaints; but sentencing requires
“certainty,” and in most cases the struggle between the prosecution and
the defense, and the doubt of the judge, turns upon the question of
probability as against proof.[143]
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