The fullness of the possibilities under which anything may be asserted
is also of importance in this matter. The inference that a thing is
impossible is generally made by most people in such wise that they first
consider the details of the eventualities they already know, or
immediately present. Then, when these are before them, they infer that
the matter is quite impossible--and whether one or more different
eventualities have missed of consideration, is not studied at all. Our
kindly professor of physics once told us: “To-day I intended to show you
the beautiful experiments in the interference of light--but it can not
be observed in daylight and when I draw the curtains you raise
rough-house. The demonstration is therefore impossible and I take the
instruments away.” The good man did not consider the other eventuality,
that we might be depended upon to behave decently even if the curtains
were drawn.
Hence the rule that a witness’s assertion that a thing is impossible
must never be trusted. Take the simplest example. The witness assures us
that it is impossible for a theft to have been committed by some
stranger from outside. If you ask him why, he will probably tell you:
“Because the door was bolted and the windows barred.” The eventuality
that the thief might have entered by way of the chimney, or have sent a
child between the bars of the window, or have made use of some peculiar
instrument, etc., are not considered, and would not be if the question
concerning the ground of the inference had not been put.
We must especially remember that we criminalists “must not dally with
mathematical truth but must seek historical truth. We start with a mass
of details, unite them, and succeed by means of this union and test in
attaining a result which permits us to judge the existence and the
characteristics of past events.” The material of our work lies in the
mass of details, and the manner and reliability of its presentation
determines the certainty of our inferences.
Seen more closely the winning of this material may be described as Hume
describes it:[159] “If we would satisfy ourselves, therefore, concerning
the nature of that evidence which assures us of matters of fact, we must
inquire how we arrive at the knowledge of cause and effect. I shall
venture to affirm as a general proposition which admits of no exception,
that the knowledge of this relation is not, in any instance, attained by
reasonings a priori; but arises entirely from experience, when we find
that any particular objects are constantly conjoined with each other;
... nor can our reason, unassisted by experience, ever draw any
inference concerning real existence and matter of fact.”
In the course of his explanation Hume presents two propositions,
(1) I have found that such an object has always been attended with such
an effect.
(2) I foresee that other objects which are in appearance similar, will
be attended with similar effects.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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