The criminological importance of this “connection” lies in the fact that
the correctness of our inferences depends upon its discovery. We work
continuously with these two Humian propositions, and we always make our
assertion, first, that some things are related as cause and effect, and
we join the present case to that because we consider it similar. If it
is really similar, and the connection of the first and the second
proposition are actually correct, the truth of the inference is
attained. We need not count the unexplained wonders of numerical
relations in the result. D’Alembert asserts: “It seems as if there were
some law of nature which more frequently prevents the occurrence of
regular than irregular combinations; those of the first kind are
mathematically, but not physically, more probable. When we see that high
numbers are thrown with some one die, we are immediately inclined to
call that die false.” And John Stuart Mill adds, that d’Alembert should
have set the problem in the form of asking whether he would believe in
the die if, after having examined it and found it right, somebody
announced that ten sixes had been cast with it.
We may go still further and assert that we are generally inclined to
consider an inference wrong which indicates that accidental matters have
occurred in regular numerical relation. Who believes the hunter’s story
that he has shot 100 hares in the past week, or the gambler’s that he
has won 1000 dollars; or the sick man’s, that he was sick ten times? It
will be supposed at the very least that each is merely indicating an
approximately round sum. Ninety-six hares, 987 dollars, and eleven
illnesses will sound more probable. And this goes so far that during
examinations, witnesses are shy of naming such “improbable ratios,” if
they at all care to have their testimony believed. Then again, many
judges are in no wise slow to jump at such a number and to demand an
“accurate statement,” or even immediately to decide that the witness is
talking only “about.” How deep-rooted such views are is indicated by the
circumstance that bankers and other merchants of lottery tickets find
that tickets with “pretty numbers” are difficult to sell. A ticket of
series 1000, number 100 is altogether unsalable, for such a number “can
not possibly be sold.” Then again, if one has to count up a column of
accidental figures and the sum is 1000, the correctness of the sum is
always doubted.
Here are facts which are indubitable and unexplained. We must therefore
agree neither to distrust so-called round numbers, nor to place
particular reliance on quite irregular figures. Both should be examined.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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