Critical, Historical, and Miscellaneous Essays; Vol. 2: With a Memoir and IndexMacaulay, Thomas Babington Macaulay, Baron
Philosophy
Critical, Historical, and Miscellaneous Essays; Vol. 2: With a Memoir and Index
Macaulay, Thomas Babington Macaulay, Baron
English literature -- History and criticism; Great Britain -- History
What, we ask, is there to evade? Is 246 to 420 as 50 to 4000? Is 331 to
396 as 100 to 500? If the law propounded by Mr. Sadler were correct,
the births to a hundred marriages in the least populous part of England,
would be, 246 X 4000 50, that is 19,680,--nearly two hundred children to
every mother. But we will not carry on these calculations. The absurdity
of Mr. Sadler’s proposition is so palpable that it is unnecessary
to select particular instances. Let us see what are the extremes of
population and fecundity in well-known countries. The space which Mr.
Sadler generally takes is a square mile. The population at the Cape of
Good Hope is, according to him, one to the square mile. That of London
is two hundred thousand to the square mile. The number of children at
the Cape, Mr. Sadler informs us, is 5.48 to a marriage. In London,
he states it at 2.35 to a marriage. Now how can that of which all the
variations lie between 2.35 and 5.48 vary, either directly or inversely,
as that which admits of all the variations between one and two hundred
thousand? Mr. Sadler evidently does not know the meaning of the word
proportion. A million is a larger quantity than ten. A hundred is a
larger quantity than five. Mr. Sadler thinks, therefore, that there is
no impropriety in saying that a hundred is to five as a million is to
ten, or in the inverse ratio of ten to a million. He proposes to prove
that the fecundity of marriages varies in inverse proportion to the
density of the population. But all that {226}he attempts to prove is
that, while the population increases from one to a hundred and sixty on
the square mile, the fecundity will diminish from 5.48 to 3.66; and that
again, while the population increases from one hundred and sixty to two
hundred thousand on the square mile, the fecundity will diminish from
3.66 to 2.35.
The proposition which Mr. Sadler enounces, without understanding the
words which he uses, would indeed, if it could be proved, set us at ease
as to the dangers of over-population. But it is, as we have shown, a
proposition so grossly absurd that it is difficult for any man to keep
his countenance while he repeats it. The utmost that Mr. Sadler has
ever attempted to prove is this,--that the fecundity of the human
race diminishes as population becomes more condensed,--but that the
diminution of fecundity bears a very small ratio to the increase
of population,--so that, while the population on a square mile is
multiplied two hundred-thousand-fold, the fecundity decreases by little
more than one-half.
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