Critical, Historical, and Miscellaneous Essays; Vol. 2: With a Memoir and IndexMacaulay, Thomas Babington Macaulay, Baron
Philosophy
Critical, Historical, and Miscellaneous Essays; Vol. 2: With a Memoir and Index
Macaulay, Thomas Babington Macaulay, Baron
English literature -- History and criticism; Great Britain -- History
Mr. Sadler gives us a long table of all the towns of England and
Ireland, which, he tells us, irrefragably demonstrates his principle. We
assert, and will prove, that these tables are alone sufficient to upset
his whole theory.
It is very true that in the great towns the number of births to a
marriage appears to be smaller than in the less populous towns. But we
learn some other facts from these tables which we should be glad to
know how Mr. Sadler will explain. We find that the fecundity in towns of
fewer than 3,000 inhabitants is actually much greater than the average
fecundity of the kingdom, and that the fecundity in towns of between
3,000 and 4,000 inhabitants is at least as great as the average
fecundity of the kingdom. The average fecundity of a marriage in towns
of fewer than 3,000 inhabitants is about four; in towns of between 3,000
and 4,000 inhabitants it is 3.60. Now the average fecundity of England,
when it contained only 160 inhabitants to a square mile, and when,
therefore, according to the new law of population, the fecundity must
have been greater than it now is, was only, according to Mr. Sadler,
3.66 to a marriage. To proceed,--the fecundity of a marriage in the
English towns of between 4,000 and 5,000 inhabitants is stated at 3.56.
But, when we turn to Mr. Sadler’s table of the counties, we find the
fecundity of a marriage in Warwickshire and Staffordshire rated at only
3.48, and in Lancashire and Surrey at only 3.41.
These facts disprove Mr. Sadler’s principle; and the fact on which he
lays so much stress--that the fecundity is less in the great towns
than in the small {235}towns--does not tend in any degree to prove his
principle. There is not the least reason to believe that the population
is more dense, _on a given space_, in London or Manchester than in a
town of 4,000 inhabitants. But it is quite certain that the population
is more dense in a town of 4,000 inhabitants than in Warwickshire or
Lancashire. That the fecundity of Manchester is less than the fecundity
of Sandwich or Guildford is a circumstance which has nothing whatever
to do with Mr. Sadler’s theory. But that the fecundity of Sandwich
is greater than the average fecundity of Kent,--that the fecundity of
Guildford is greater than the average fecundity of Surrey,--as from his
own tables appears to be the case,--these are facts utterly inconsistent
with his theory.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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