Critical, Historical, and Miscellaneous Essays; Vol. 2: With a Memoir and IndexMacaulay, Thomas Babington Macaulay, Baron
Philosophy
Critical, Historical, and Miscellaneous Essays; Vol. 2: With a Memoir and Index
Macaulay, Thomas Babington Macaulay, Baron
English literature -- History and criticism; Great Britain -- History
Mr. Malthus, and those who agree with him, have {245}generally referred
to the United States, as a country in which the human race increases in
a ‘geometrical ratio, and have fixed on twenty-five years as the term in
which the population of that country doubles itself. Mr. Sadler contends
that it is physically impossible for a people to double in twenty-five
years; nay, that thirty-five years is far too short a period,--that
the Americans do not double by procreation in less than forty-seven
years,--and that the rapid increase of their numbers is produced by
emigration from Europe.
Emigration has certainly had some effect in increasing the population of
the United States. But so great has the rate of that increase been that,
after making frill allowance for the effect of emigration, there win be
a residue, attributable to procreation alone, amply sufficient to double
the population in twenty-five years.
Mr. Sadler states the results of the four censuses as follows:--
“_There were, of white inhabitants, in the whole of the United States
in 1790, 3,093,111; in 1800, 4,309,656; in 1810, 5,862,093; and in 1820,
7,861,710. The increase, in the first term, being 39 per cent.; that in
the second, 36 per cent.; and that in the third and last, 33 per cent.
It is superfluous to say, that it is utterly impossible to deduce
the geometric theory of human increase, whatever be the period of
duplication, from such terms as these._”
Mr. Sadler is a bad arithmetician. The increase in the last term is
not, as he states it, 33 per cent., but more than 34 per cent. Now, an
increase of 32 per cent, in ten years, is more than sufficient to double
the population in twenty-five years. And there is, we think, very strong
reason to believe that the white population of the United States does
increase by 32 per cent, every ten years. {246}Our reason is this.
There is in the United States a class of persons whose numbers are not
increased by emigration,--the negro slaves. During the interval which
elapsed between the census of 1810 and the census of 1820, the change in
their numbers must have been produced by procreation, and by procreation
alone. Their situation, though much happier than that of the wretched
beings who cultivate the sugar plantations of Trinidad and Demerara,
cannot be supposed to be more favourable to health and fecundity than
that of free labourers. In 1810, the slave trade had been but recently
abolished; and there were in consequence many more male than female
slaves,--a circumstance, of course, very unfavourable to procreation.
Slaves are perpetually passing into the class of freemen; but no freeman
ever descends into servitude; so that the census will not exhibit the
whole effect of the procreation which really takes place.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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