Economics Volume II: Modern Economic ProblemsFetter, Frank A. (Frank Albert)
General
Economics Volume II: Modern Economic Problems
Fetter, Frank A. (Frank Albert)
Economics
At length prices begin to go up less rapidly, and the question arises
in many minds whether the movement can continue, and if not, when it
will cease. Men wish to hold on for the last profits, and are willing
to risk something to gain them. When prices rise not only as compared
with former domestic prices, but as compared with current foreign
prices, foreign imports are stimulated and exports fall. This calls
for a new equilibrium of money and requires at length large and
continued exportation of specie. This checks prices, and, reducing the
specie reserves of the banks, compels them to be more cautious. At the
same time the increase of costs in many industries begins to reduce
profits. The fall in the value of many stocks and securities held
by the banks forces many brokers and speculators to convert their
resources into ready money. This is the moment of danger; weak
enterprises find their foundations crumbling, and there are many
failures.[6] The falling prices, the shattered credit, and the
financial losses force many factories to close, and many workmen
are thrown out of employment. This moment of widespread loss is the
crisis, It is followed by another period of low prices and of small
output, and therefore of profits small or negative in many industries.
Business must again enter upon a period of retrenchment, for it has
completed another cycle.
§ 7. #General features of a crisis.# Altho irregular in time of
occurrence and unlike in their immediate occasions, financial crises
show certain general features. They are a part of the larger movement
here outlined as the business cycle. Some have thought this cycle to
be normally a period of ten years, divided into one year of crisis,
three years of depression, three years of recovery, and three years of
unusual prosperity. This succession of events occurs pretty regularly,
though not in the regular intervals of time. Crises are more severe in
countries with more extensive use of money and credit, but still more
severe where the credit system is more loosely administered and less
efficiently coördinated. They are harder in the United States and
England than in Germany, harder in Germany than in France, harder in
western Europe than in eastern Europe, harder in Christendom than in
heathendom. They are less severe in rural districts, where prosperity
depends more on crop conditions, and business has in it less of
financial speculation. Their effects are least felt in the staple
industries, for when hard times come people economize on the
less essential things. The glove-factory, the silk-factory, the
golf-club-factory are more likely to close than the flour-mill. In
a crisis wages and salaries are less affected than are profits, but
wageworkers suffer in the loss of employment. Those money lenders who
have eliminated chance as far as possible and have taken a low rate
of interest lose little; the risk-takers who draw their incomes from
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