There is another argument against diphtheria-antitoxin; we may call
it, for brevity, the death-rate argument. It is this. _The doctors say
that the antitoxin does save lives; they give us statistics from every
part of the world. But, if it saves lives, then the total mortality
ought to go down. But the Registrar-General's returns do not go down;
indeed, they tend to go up. Therefore diphtheria-antitoxin is useless,
or worse than useless._ By this kind of logic, umbrellas are useless.
If they were useful, then the more umbrellas there were, the less rain
there would be. But the increase in umbrellas coincides with a
positive increase of rain. Therefore umbrellas are useless, or worse
than useless.
Despite the absurdity of this argument, Mr. Coleridge and Mr.
Somerville Wood, the National Society's lecturer, have worked hard
with it; Mr. Coleridge in the press, Mr. Wood on the platform. Surely
this confusion between the total mortality and the case-mortality of
an epidemic disease is a very serious offence. That there may be no
doubt of the confusion, let us consider a set of quotations, out of a
correspondence published in September-October 1902, between G. P.,
whose initials we may take to mean general practitioner, and Mr.
Somerville Wood. This correspondence is a good instance of the
argument in its usual form:--
G. P.: "The antitoxin treatment of diphtheria has lessened the
mortality from that disease by nearly 50 per cent. In the
hospitals of the Metropolitan Asylums Board the average
case-mortality for the last five years of the pre-antitoxin
period, _i.e._ previous to 1895, was 30.6; that for 1895 and the
successive four years was 18.1, the successive figures being
22.8, 21.2, 17.7, 15.4, and 13.6, the mortality steadily falling
with increased familiarity with the use of the remedy. This has
not been the result of a diminished virulence of the disease, as
similar experience has been gained all over the world. The
figures for Chicago are even more striking, as the averages are
35.0 and 6.79 for the pre-and the post-antitoxin periods
respectively."
Mr. WOOD: "Nowadays, almost every sore throat is called
diphtheritic, antitoxin is given, and wonderful statistics are
formulated to bolster up the latest medical craze. The real test
is whether the introduction of antitoxin has lowered the
death-rate generally from diphtheria. Here are the
Registrar-General's figures: In 1887, the death-rate from
diphtheria per million persons in this country was 140. In 1897,
after the treatment had been used several years, the death-rate
from this disease increased to 246 per million."
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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