It would be pleasant to believe that the application of the doctrine
of chances to problems of this character is quite generally
recognized; but this recognition is so often accompanied by the
feeling that the law very clearly applies to all cases but the
one that happens to be under discussion, that I fear the belief
is unwarranted. Moreover, the notion seems to prevail that these
coincidences should occur with equal frequency to all persons;
while, in fact, the law of probability provides for the most various
distribution among individuals. However, the attempt, and it may be
the sincere attempt, to apply proper conceptions of probability and
improbability to such problems often fails, because of an unfortunate
mental attitude which presents, with an outward acquiescence in
the objective view of the problem, an inward conviction in which
the subjective interpretation is really dominant; for this and
other reasons, this objective method of viewing the matter, however
pertinent, is not the most important.
II
One of the most deplorable attitudes towards the borderland phenomena
of which mental telegraphy or telepathy forms a type, is that which
insists upon an exact and detailed explanation of concrete personal
experiences, and regards these as so essentially peculiar that it
refuses to consider them in connection with the many other instances
of the same class, without reference to which a rational explanation
is unattainable. This tendency, to insist that the laws of science
shall be precisely and in detail applicable to individual experiences
possessing a personal interest for us, has wrought much havoc; it has
contributed to superstition, fostered pseudo-science, and encouraged
charlatanism. To antagonize this tendency it is necessary to insist
upon the statistical nature of the inquiry. We should certainly be
familiar in this statistic-filled age with the law-abiding character
of individual happenings when considered in large groups. So many
types of facts depending upon individual and heterogeneous motives
shoot together and form curves of surprising regularity; the number
of marriages or of misdirected letters, the falsification of ages or
the distribution of heights of individuals, and countless other items
that in individual cases seem accidental, or capricious, or due to
a host of minute and unaccountable factors, none the less present
a striking statistical regularity. The owners of a gaming-table,
counting upon the statistical regularity of the accidental, are
assured of a steady income; they are interested long enough to obtain
an extensive view of the fluctuations, and to see the law that guides
the whole. Not so the individual player; he is interested only in
that particular portion of the game in which his money is at stake.
He detects mysterious laws of fortune and freaks of luck; sees in a
series of coincidences or momentary successes the proofs of his pet
schemes, and dismisses the general doctrine of chances with disdain,
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