I have based my discussion of mental telegraphy almost wholly upon
the occurrence of coincidences (using that term not as the equivalent
wholly of chance occurrences, but including suggestive or interesting
conjunctions of circumstances in general), for the reason that
coincidences--both those of a commonplace character and those that
seem to possess a striking personal significance--have prepared the
popular mind for the acceptance of the telepathic hypothesis, and
still constitute the most formidable array of evidence presented
for that hypothesis. The other class of evidence to be considered
is the experimental, which may be said to include as its most
distinctive type the results of tests in which intentional attempts
at mental telegraphy were made under definite conditions and usually
with specially selected subjects; and as another type, the precise
verification and registration of presentiments and peculiar and
startling "psychic experiences" with reference to their coincidence
with death, accidents, and other serious events in life. It may be
admitted that the experimental data are equally worthy with the
others of a logical analysis, and indeed that they present in some
respects different and more favorable conditions for the application
of such an analysis. In general, however (and I desire to confine
this discussion to the general principles involved and not to the
analysis of special cases), the considerations that determine the
logical value, or the lack of it, of the one type of evidence are
applicable without undue modification to the other. Nor do I consider
that the experimental data have seriously modified the logical status
of the problem as a whole; nor that they have, except in relatively
few cases, been of themselves sufficient to make converts to a
belief in telepathy. They have undoubtedly very much strengthened
and disseminated that belief; but this implies that a favorable
disposition to the belief was already present. It is because it
seems to me that the presence of this favorable disposition, albeit
in suppressed or half-acknowledged form, is in most cases due to
some phase of the argument from coincidences, that I have made it
central in my discussion. I must not fail to point out, however,
that experiments in thought-transference have one important, and
that a logical, advantage over observations of coincidences; this is
the possibility which they present of quite accurately allowing for
the effect of chance. In coincidences the estimate of chance as the
source of the conjunction of events is frequently, if not always, a
matter of complex judgment over which serious differences of opinion
will occur. Some of the published quantitative estimates made by
serious and able students of such problems, of the probabilities
that certain coincidences have been due to chance have been
pronounced altogether wide of the mark and even absurd by others. In
experiments arranged with due precautions there can be no uncertainty
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