A few remarks concerning these figures may be of some avail.
When a sudden fall in the British and Irish exports took place in the
years 1882-1886, and the alarmists took advantage of the bad times to
raise the never-forgotten war-cry of protection, especially insisting
on the damages made to British trade by “German competition,” Mr.
Giffen analysed the figures of international trade in his “Finance
Essays,” and in a report read in 1888 before the Board of Trade
Commission. Subsequently, Mr. A. W. Flux analysed again the same
figures, extending them to a later period. He confirmed Mr. Giffen’s
conclusions and endeavoured to prove that the famous “German
competition” is a fallacy.
Mr. Giffen’s conclusions, quoted by Mr. A. W. Flux (“The Commercial
Supremacy of Great Britain,” in _Economical Journal_, 1894, iv., p.
457), were as follows:--
“On the whole, the figures are not such as to indicate any great and
overwhelming advance in German exports, in comparison with those of
the United Kingdom. There is greater progress in certain directions,
but, taken altogether, no great disproportionate advance, and in many
important markets for the United Kingdom Germany hardly appears at
all.”
In this subdued form, _with regard to German competition alone_--and
due allowance being made for figures in which no consideration is
given to what sort of goods make a given value of exports, and in
what quantities--Mr. Giffen’s statement could be accepted. But that
was all.
If we take, however, Mr. Giffen’s figures as they are reproduced in
extended tables (on pp. 461-467 of the just quoted paper), tabulated
with great pains in order to show that Germany’s part in the imports
to several European countries, such as Russia, Italy, Servia, etc.,
had declined, as well as the part of the United Kingdom, all we could
conclude from these figures was, that there were other countries
besides Germany--namely, the United States and Belgium--which
competed very effectively with England, France, and Germany for
supplying what manufactured goods were taken by Russia, Italy,
Servia, etc., from abroad.
At the same time such figures gave no idea of the fact that where
manufactured metal goods were formerly supplied, coal and raw metals
were imported for the home manufacture of those same goods; or, where
dyed and printed cottons were imported, only yarn was required. The
whole subject is infinitely more complicated than it appeared in Mr.
Giffen’s calculations; and, valuable as his figures may have been for
appeasing exaggerated fears, they contained no answer whatever to the
many economic questions involved in the matters treated by Mr. Giffen.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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