The rationale is that retained earnings, once re-invested,
generate additional earnings. Such a virtuous cycle
increases the likelihood and size of future dividends. Even
undistributed earnings, goes the refrain, provide a rate of
return, or a yield - known as the earnings yield. The
original meaning of the word "yield" - income realized by
an investor - was undermined by this Newspeak.
Why was this oxymoron - the "earnings yield" -
perpetuated?
According to all current theories of finance, in the absence
of dividends - shares are worthless. The value of an
investor's holdings is determined by the income he stands
to receive from them. No income - no value. Of course, an
investor can always sell his holdings to other investors
and realize capital gains (or losses). But capital gains -
though also driven by earnings hype - do not feature in
financial models of stock valuation.
Faced with a dearth of dividends, market participants -
and especially Wall Street firms - could obviously not live
with the ensuing zero valuation of securities. They
resorted to substituting future dividends - the outcome of
capital accumulation and re-investment - for present ones.
The myth was born.
Thus, financial market theories starkly contrast with
market realities.
No one buys shares because he expects to collect an
uninterrupted and equiponderant stream of future income
in the form of dividends. Even the most gullible novice
knows that dividends are a mere apologue, a relic of the
past. So why do investors buy shares? Because they hope
to sell them to other investors later at a higher price.
While past investors looked to dividends to realize income
from their shareholdings - present investors are more into
capital gains. The market price of a share reflects its
discounted expected capital gains, the discount rate being
its volatility. It has little to do with its discounted future
stream of dividends, as current financial theories teach us.
But, if so, why the volatility in share prices, i.e., why are
share prices distributed? Surely, since, in liquid markets,
there are always buyers - the price should stabilize around
an equilibrium point.
It would seem that share prices incorporate expectations
regarding the availability of willing and able buyers, i.e.,
of investors with sufficient liquidity. Such expectations
are influenced by the price level - it is more difficult to
find buyers at higher prices - by the general market
sentiment, and by externalities and new information,
including new information about earnings.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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