The black economy is made up of two constituent
activities:
1. Legal activities that are not reported to the tax
authorities and the income from which goes
untaxed and unreported. For instance: it is not
illegal to clean someone's house, to feed people or
to drive them. It is, however, illegal to hide the
income generated by these activities and not to pay
tax on it. In most countries of the world, this is a
criminal offence, punishable by years in prison.
2. Illegal activities which, needless to say, are also
not reported to the state (and, therefore, not taxed).
These two types of activities together are thought to
comprise between 15% (USA, Germany) to 60% (Russia)
of the economic activity (as measured by the GDP),
depending on the country. It would probably be an
underestimate to say that 40% of the GDP in Macedonia
is "black". This equals 1.2 billion USD per annum. The
money generated by these activities is largely held in
foreign exchange outside the banking system or smuggled
abroad (even through the local banking system).
Experience in other countries shows that circa 15% of the
money "floats" in the recipient country and is used to
finance consumption. This should translate to 1 billion
free floating dollars in the hands of the 2 million citizens
of Macedonia. Billions are transferred to the outside world
(mostly to finance additional transactions, some of it to be
saved in foreign banks away from the long hand of the
state). A trickle of money comes back and is "laundered"
through the opening of small legal businesses.
These are excellent news for Macedonia. It means that
when the macro-economic, geopolitical and (especially)
the micro-economic climates will change - billions of
USD will flow back to Macedonia. People will bring their
money back to open businesses, to support family
members and just to consume it. It all depends on the
mood and on the atmosphere and on how much these
people feel that they can rely on the political stability and
rational management. Such enormous flows of capital
happened before: in Argentina after the Generals and their
corrupt regime were ousted by civilians, in Israel when
the peace process started and in Mexico following the
signature of NAFTA, to mention but three cases. These
reserves can be lured back and transform the economy.
But the black economy has many more important
functions.
The black economy is a cash economy. It is liquid and
fast. It increases the velocity of money. It injects much
needed foreign exchange to the economy and
inadvertently increases the effective money supply and the
resulting money aggregates. In this sense, it defies the
dictates of "we know better" institutions such as the IMF.
It fosters economic activity and employs people. It
encourages labour mobility and international trade. Black
economy, in short, is very positive. With the exception of
illegal activities, it does everything that the official
economy does - and, usually, more efficiently.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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