The first fallacy is to assume that all forms of utility are
reducible to one another or to money terms. Thus, the
values attached to all utilities are expressed in monetary
terms. This is wrong. Some people prefer leisure, or
freedom, or predictability to expected money. This is the
very essence of risk aversion: a trade off between the
utility of predictability (absence or minimization of risk)
and the expected utility of money. In other words, people
have many utility functions running simultaneously - or,
at best, one utility function with many variables and
coefficients. This is why taxi drivers in New York cease
working in a busy day, having reached a pre-determined
income target: the utility function of their money equals
the utility function of their leisure.
How can these coefficients (and the values of these
variables) be determined? Only by engaging in extensive
empirical research. There is no way for any theory or
"explanation" to predict these values. We have yet to
reach the stage of being able to quantify, measure and
numerically predict human behaviour and personality
(=the set of adaptive traits and their interactions with
changing circumstances). That economics is a branch of
psychology is becoming more evident by the day. It
would do well to lose its mathematical pretensions and
adopt the statistical methods of its humbler relative.
The second fallacy is the assumption underlying both
rational and behavioural economics that human nature is
an "object" to be analysed and "studied", that it is static
and unchanged. But, of course, humans change
inexorably. This is the only fixed feature of being human:
change. Some changes are unpredictable, even in
deterministic principle. Other changes are well
documented. An example of the latter class of changes in
the learning curve. Humans learn and the more they learn
the more they alter their behaviour. So, to obtain any
meaningful data, one has to observe behaviour in time, to
obtain a sequence of reactions and actions. To isolate,
observe and manipulate environmental variables and
study human interactions. No snapshot can approximate a
video sequence where humans are concerned.
XLIII. The Pettifogger Procurators
Diplomats in Post-Communist Countries
In 2001, the most unusual event has gone unnoticed in the
international press. A former minister of finance has
accused the more prominent members of the diplomatic
corps in his country of corruption. He insisted that these
paragons of indignant righteousness and hectoring
morality have tried to blackmail him into paying them
hefty commissions from money allotted to exigent
humanitarian aid. This was immediately and from afar -
and, therefore, without proper investigation - denied by
their superiors in no uncertain terms.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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