Later on, Congress demanded that thrifts obtain a bank
charter by 1998. This was not too onerous for most of
them. At the height of the crisis the ratio of their
combined equity to their combined assets was less than
1%. But in 1994 it reached almost 10% and remained
there ever since.
This remarkable turnaround was the result of serendipity
as much as careful planning. Interest rate spreads became
highly positive. In a classic arbitrage, savings and loans
paid low interest on deposits and invested the money in
high yielding government and corporate bonds. The
prolonged equity bull market allowed thrifts to float new
stock at exorbitant prices.
As the juridical relics of the Great Depression - chiefly
amongst them, the Glass-Steagall Act - were repealed,
banks were liberated to enter new markets, offer new
financial instruments, and spread throughout the USA.
Product and geographical diversification led to enhanced
financial health.
But the very fact that S&L's were poised to exploit these
opportunities is a tribute to politicians and regulators alike
- though except for setting the general tone of urgency and
resolution, the relative absence of political intervention in
the handling of the crisis is notable. It was managed by
the autonomous, able, utterly professional, largely a-
political Federal Reserve. The political class provided the
professionals with the tools they needed to do the job.
This mode of collaboration may well be the most
important lesson of this crisis.
III. Case Study - Wall Street, October 1929
Also published by United Press International (UPI)
Claud Cockburn, writing for the "Times of London" from
New-York, described the irrational exuberance that
gripped the nation just prior to the Great Depression.
As Europe wallowed in post-war malaise, America
seemed to have discovered a new economy, the secret of
uninterrupted growth and prosperity, the fount of
transforming technology:
"The atmosphere of the great boom was savagely exciting,
but there were times when a person with my European
background felt alarmingly lonely. He would have liked to
believe, as these people believed, in the eternal upswing
of the big bull market or else to meet just one person with
whom he might discuss some general doubts without
being regarded as an imbecile or a person of deliberately
evil intent-some kind of anarchist, perhaps".
The greatest analysts with the most impeccable credentials
and track records failed to predict the forthcoming crash
and the unprecedented economic depression that followed
it. Irving Fisher, a preeminent economist, who, according
to his biographer-son, Irving Norton Fisher, lost the
equivalent of $140 million in today's money in the crash,
made a series of soothing predictions. On October 22 he
uttered these avuncular statements: "Quotations have not
caught up with real values as yet ... (There is) no cause for
a slump ... The market has not been inflated but merely
readjusted..".
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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