Even as the market convulsed on Black Thursday,
October 24, 1929 and on Black Tuesday, October 29 - the
New York Times wrote: "Rally at close cheers brokers,
bankers optimistic".
In an editorial on October 26, it blasted rabid speculators
and compliant analysts: ``We shall hear considerably less
in the future of those newly invented conceptions of
finance which revised the principles of political economy
with a view solely to fitting the stock market's vagaries.''
But it ended thus: "(The Federal Reserve has) insured the
soundness of the business situation when the speculative
markets went on the rocks.''
Compare this to Alan Greenspan Congressional testimony
this summer: "While bubbles that burst are scarcely
benign, the consequences need not be catastrophic for the
economy ... (The Depression was brought on by) ensuing
failures of policy".
Investors, their equity leveraged with bank and broker
loans, crowded into stocks of exciting "new technologies",
such as the radio and mass electrification. The bull market
- especially in issues of public utilities - was fueled by
"mergers, new groupings, combinations and good
earnings" and by corporate purchasing for "employee
stock funds".
Cautionary voices - such as Paul Warburg, the influential
banker, Roger Babson, the "Prophet of Loss" and
Alexander Noyes, the eternal Cassandra from the New
York Times - were derided. The number of brokerage
accounts doubled between March 1927 and March 1929.
When the market corrected by 8 percent between March
18-27 - following a Fed induced credit crunch and a series
of mysterious closed-door sessions of the Fed's board -
bankers rushed in. The New York Times reported:
``Responsible bankers agree that stocks should now be
supported, having reached a level that makes them
attractive.'' By August, the market was up 35 percent on
its March lows. But it reached a peak on September 3 and
it was downhill since then.
On October 19, five days before "Black Thursday",
Business Week published this sanguine prognosis:
"Now, of course, the crucial weaknesses of such periods --
price inflation, heavy inventories, over-extension of
commercial credit -- are totally absent. The security
market seems to be suffering only an attack of stock
indigestion... There is additional reassurance in the fact
that, should business show any further signs of fatigue, the
banking system is in a good position now to administer
any needed credit tonic from its excellent Reserve
supply".
The crash unfolded gradually. Black Thursday actually
ended with an inspiring rally. Friday and Saturday -
trading ceased only on Sundays - witnessed an upswing
followed by mild profit taking. The market dropped 12.8
percent on Monday, with Winston Churchill watching
from the visitors' gallery - incurring a loss of $10-14
billion.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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